Investigation of the subsurface structure at the target site in Kumamoto, Japan, and the distributed data of the blind prediction exercise: report for the experiments for the 6th international symposium on effects of surface geology on seismic motion

• Published in: Earth, planets, and space planets, and space, 2024-12, Vol.76 (1), p.43-22, Article 43
• Main Authors: Matsushima, Shinichi, Yamanaka, Hiroaki, Tsuno, Seiji, Chimoto, Kosuke, Suzuki, Haruhiko, Kawase, Hiroshi, Matsushima, Takeshi
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: 2016 AD; 2016 Kumamoto earthquake; 4. Seismology; Associations, institutions, etc; Blind prediction; Boreholes; Conferences, meetings and seminars; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earthquake data; Earthquake engineering; Earthquake prediction; Earthquakes; Effects of Surface Geology on Seismic Motion (ESG): General State-of-Research; ESG6; France; Geology; Geophysical data; Geophysics; Geophysics/Geodesy; Ground motion; Historical account; Japan; Kumamoto City; Laboratory tests; Microtremor; Observations; Seismic activity; Seismic engineering; Seismic waves; Seismological research; Seismology; Societies; Soil testing; Structural models; Surface waves; Velocity; Velocity distribution
• ISSN: 1880-5981; 1343-8832; 1880-5981
• DOI: 10.1186/s40623-024-01958-0

This technical report explains details on the results of the investigation to build a subsurface structural model and a selection of earthquake data at the target site of the blind prediction exercise for “The 6th International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior/International Association of Earthquake Engineering International Symposium on the Effect of Surface Geology on Seismic Motion (ESG6).” The selection process of the target site in the Kumamoto Plain, Japan, in ESG6 was explained with a historical review of the blind prediction tests in the previous ESG conferences. We have collected existing subsurface structural and earthquake data and conducted geophysical and geotechnical surveys in and around the target site to generate important velocity structure and the earthquake data used in the blind test. Microtremor data were obtained in triangular arrays ranging in side lengths from 1 to 962 m, and active surface wave data were derived along a 36-m line at the site. These data were provided for the prediction of a subsurface structural model in the first step of the blind prediction exercise. We also conducted a velocity logging in a borehole to a bottom depth of 39 m at the site and laboratory tests of soil samples from the borehole. We constructed a velocity profile of the shallow and deep sedimentary layers from a combination of the geophysical and geotechnical data at the site, and validated it by comparing the characteristics of the ground motion data from the moderate event. This “preferred velocity model” was provided as a standard model to the participants in the second and third steps of the blind prediction test to predict the earthquake ground motions of a moderate event and the mainshock of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake. Graphical Abstract