Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil

Global shifts in climatic patterns have been recorded over the last decades. Such modifications mainly correspond to increased temperatures and rainfall regime changes, which are becoming more variable and extreme. We aimed to evaluate the impact of future changes in climatic patterns on the distrib...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PeerJ (San Francisco, CA) CA), 2023-02, Vol.11, p.e14882-e14882, Article e14882
Main Authors: Gonçalves, Gabriela Silva Ribeiro, Cerqueira, Pablo Vieira, Silva, Daniel Paiva, Gomes, Letícia Braga, Leão, Camila Ferreira, de Andrade, André Felipe Alves, Santos, Marcos Pérsio Dantas
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
Animals
Biodiversity
Birds
Brazil
Climate Change
Climate Change Biology
Climatic stability
Conservation
Conservation Biology
Conservation policy
Dry forest
Ecology
Ecosystem
Ecosystems
Extinctions
Fever
Gap analysis
General circulation models
Global temperature changes
Niche (Ecology)
Plant reproduction
Protected areas
Protection and preservation
Rain and rainfall
Rainfall
Refugia
Variables
Wildlife conservation
Zoology
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Summary:Global shifts in climatic patterns have been recorded over the last decades. Such modifications mainly correspond to increased temperatures and rainfall regime changes, which are becoming more variable and extreme. We aimed to evaluate the impact of future changes in climatic patterns on the distribution of 19 endemic or threatened bird taxa of the Caatinga. We assessed whether current protected areas (PAs) are adequate and whether they will maintain their effectiveness in the future. Also, we identified climatically stable areas that might work as refugia for an array of species. We observed that 84% and 87% of the bird species of Caatinga analyzed in this study will face high area losses in their predicted range distribution areas in future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). We also observed that the current PAs in Caatinga are ineffective in protecting these species in both present and future scenarios, even when considering all protection area categories. However, several suitable areas can still be allocated for conservation, where there are vegetation remnants and a high amount of species. Therefore, our study paves a path for conservation actions to mitigate current and future extinctions due to climate change by choosing more suitable protection areas.
ISSN:2167-8359
2167-8359
DOI:10.7717/peerj.14882