Characterizing Drivers of Asia's Black Elephant Disaster Risks

• Published in: Earth's future 2022-12, Vol.10 (12), p.n/a
• Main Authors: Lin, Yolanda C., Mestav Sarica, Gizem, Chua, Terence J., Stone, Asa B., Jenkins, Susanna F., Switzer, Adam D., Woo, Gordon, Lallemant, David
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Asia; Black Elephant risk; Case studies; Climate change; Disaster risk; disaster risk reduction; Disasters; Earthquakes; extreme events; Hazards; Industrial plant emissions; natural hazards; Nuclear power plants; Resilience; Seismic engineering; Sustainability
• ISSN: 2328-4277; 2328-4277
• DOI: 10.1029/2021EF002607

Asia has the fastest growing population and economy, but it is also the most disaster‐prone region in the world. Resilience to disaster impacts from natural hazards will be key to the long‐term sustainability of this rapidly growing region. The first step to building resilience is to identify the key threats that this region faces. We describe these key threats as Black Elephants: a cross between a “black swan” and the proverbial "elephant in the room" — they are extreme events that are known but difficult to address and often ignored. We examine the primary drivers of these looming risks and find that the drivers include underestimated or intensifying hazards, growing exposure, high vulnerability, and unaccounted complexities from multi‐hazard events. In mitigating these key risks, we discuss psychological barriers to action and highlight the importance of information, language, and hope. The known but complex impacts from natural hazards in Asia must be further acknowledged and managed in order to build a more sustainable, resilient future in an increasingly globally connected world. Plain Language Summary Asia has the fastest growing population and economy in the world, but it is also the most disaster prone region and is home to many Black Elephant disaster risks. Black Elephant risks are a cross between extreme events that are known, but difficult to address, and are especially relevant to Asia's development. In this paper, we characterize drivers of these risks, including underestimated or changing hazards, growing number of people, places, and things that are potentially affected by hazards, high vulnerability of built and social systems when exposed to hazards, and growing impacts from multi‐hazard events. Analysis of the drivers of Black Elephant events offer insights for improved resilience to Black Elephant events. In addressing Black Elephant disaster risks, we recommend leveraging the power of language, hope, and existing information for improved resilience in this region. Key Points Black Elephant events are extreme events that are known, but difficult to address, and are especially relevant to Asia's development and sustainability Analysis of the drivers of Black Elephant events offer insights for improved resilience to these events In addressing Black Elephant events, we recommend leveraging the power of language, hope, and existing information