Predicting Cloud-to-Ground Lightning with Neural Networks

Lightning is a hazard to ground operations, launch operations and recovery at Cape Canaveral. The Air Force is responsible for providing the forecasts of lightning for these operations. Neural networks (a sub-discipline of artificial intelligence which deals with the relationships between sets of da...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Barnes, Jr , Arnold A, Frankel, Donald, Draper, James S
Format: Report
Language:English
Subjects:
AIR FORCE
AIR TO SURFACE
CLOUDS
CONVERGENCE
DATA BASES
FORECASTING
GROUND LEVEL
GROUND STATIONS
GROUND SUPPORT
Ground Support Sys & Facil For Space Vehicles
HAZARDS
LAUNCHING
LIGHTNING
METEOROLOGICAL DATA
Meteorology
NEURAL NETS
NEUROL NETS
PE62101F
POSITION(LOCATION)
PREDICTIONS
RECOVERY
SPACE LAUNCHED
TIME INTERVALS
TRAINING
WEATHER FORECOSTING
WIND
WUPL66701211
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Summary:Lightning is a hazard to ground operations, launch operations and recovery at Cape Canaveral. The Air Force is responsible for providing the forecasts of lightning for these operations. Neural networks (a sub-discipline of artificial intelligence which deals with the relationships between sets of data) are being applied in an effort to improve the forecasting of cloud to ground lightning. The excellent data sets from Cape Canaveral are used as inputs and lightning strike data are used as the output (predicted) data to train the networks. Wind data from 32 towers were used to predict lightning strikes in 16 blocks over Cape Canaveral for four time periods; 0-15 min., 30-60 min. and 1-2 hours. The network was trained by backpropagation using the data from one day and was verified on independent data. Comparisons made with the currently used convergence method gave similar results. The neural network results improved with larger training sets and with the addition of other readily available data. Five minute averaged field mill data did not improve the predictions, indicating that short term variations of the field mill data should be used. Presented at the International Conference on Lightning and Static Electricity, Cocoa Beach, FL, 1991. Prepared in collaboration with Ktaadn, Inc., Newton, MA 02159.