Measuring Uncertainty and Conservatism in Simplified Blast Models

This paper compares blast predictions (both reflected and incident loads, both for pressure and impulse, and both positive and negative phases) from a number of popular simplified models, including BlastX, ConWep, SHOCK, to a wide range of test data spanning three decades and comprising a total of n...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Bogosian, David, Ferritto, John, Shi, Yongjiang
Format: Report
Language:English
Subjects:
BIAS
BLAST
BLASTX MODEL
CONWEP MODEL
ENGINEERING MODELS
EXPLOSION EFFECTS
Explosions
IMPULSE LOADING
INCIDENT LOADS
LOAD METRICS
LOADS(FORCES)
MEASUREMENT
NEGATIVE PHASES
Operations Research
POSITIVE PHASES
PREDICTIONS
PRESSURE
REFLECTED LOADS
SHOCK MODEL
Structural Engineering and Building Technology
SYMPOSIA
TEST AND EVALUATION
UNCERTAINTY
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Summary:This paper compares blast predictions (both reflected and incident loads, both for pressure and impulse, and both positive and negative phases) from a number of popular simplified models, including BlastX, ConWep, SHOCK, to a wide range of test data spanning three decades and comprising a total of nearly 300 individual measurements. All of these were taken at low heights above the ground, some on small cubicles and others on larger buildings. The comparison is restricted to a scaled range of 3-100 ft/lb, a regime where variations in the details of the test arrangement should be more or less irrelevant. The results provide quantitative assessment of the inherent uncertainty in any blast prediction tool, even for these relatively simple geometric conditions. Relative comparison between models and test data support the determination of biases and trends within each of the models. Using these results, it is possible to quantify the bias and uncertainty in the models for each of the load metrics, and also to compare uncertainties between the various metrics. Presented at the DoD Explosives Safety Seminar (30th) held in Atlanta, GA on 13-15 Aug 2002. Published in the Proceedings of the DoD Explosives Safety Seminar (30th), p1-26, 2002.