Iran's Internal Dynamics (Foreign Policy Research Institute Footnotes, Volume 16, Number 10, December 2011)

Since its establishment in 1979, the Islamic Republic of Iran has never been free of political intrigue. However, since the disputed June 2009 presidential election, the level of intrigue has increased. And the recent pubic rift between the two highest office holders -- the unelected supreme leader,...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Tarzi, Amin
Format: Report
Language:English
Subjects:
AHMADINEJAD MAHMUD
BALANCE OF POWER
CHANGE FROM PRESIDENTIAL SYSTEM INTO A PARLIAMENTARY SYSTEM
CONFLICT
ELECTIONS
FOREIGN POLICY
Government and Political Science
GOVERNMENT(FOREIGN)
INTERNAL DYNAMICS
IRAN
IRGC AUTHORITY
IRGC POWER
IRGC(ISLAMIC REPUBLIC GUARD CORPS)
ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN
JAFARI ALI
KHAMENEI AYATOLLAH ALI
LEADERSHIP
MILITARY AS LAW ENFORCERS
MILITARY COMMANDERS
Military Forces and Organizations
MILITARY FORCES(FOREIGN)
PERIODICALS
SUPREME LEADER'S LEGITIMACY
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Summary:Since its establishment in 1979, the Islamic Republic of Iran has never been free of political intrigue. However, since the disputed June 2009 presidential election, the level of intrigue has increased. And the recent pubic rift between the two highest office holders -- the unelected supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the elected president, Mahmud Ahmadinejad -- may very well be pushing Iran and the Islamic Republic regime close to the brink. Lieutenant General Mohammad Ali Jafari, Commander of Islamic Republic Guard Corps (IRGC), declared in a July 2011 interview that the IRGC, acting as commissars of Iran's judicial branch, arrested a number of deviant individuals on charges of economic and moral violations. These individuals also happened to have close ties to supporters of Ahmadinejad and Mashaei, or the true figures of the digressive current, as Jafari insinuated. What this announcement suggests is that the IRGC is seeking to expand its authority within the Islamic Republic regime. Jafari's public declaration that his forces are acting as enforcers of the law is a potential game changer. The power balance has shifted. With Khamenei's unprecedented overt support of Ahmadinejad and the subsequent public sparring between former allies, Khamenei and his office lost much credibility, becoming more dependent on the IRGC for safeguarding the Islamic Republic regime and thus, changing the relationship between the supreme leader and the IRGC from one of leader and follower to that of interdependency for mutual survival. Khamenei in a recent speech hinted that if necessary the Islamic Republic might change the current presidential system into a parliamentary system of government. The question remains whether Khamenei and the office of the supreme leader enjoy the level of support that they had prior to 2005. If not, then that leaves room for the IRGC to insert self as the true guardian of the administrative systems of the Islamic Republic. This essay is based on the author's lecture at FPRI's History Institute for Teachers on Teaching the Middle East: Between Authoritarianism and Reform, which was held on 15-16 October, 2011. The essay has been reprinted with the permission of the author from Iran's Internal Dynamics, Middle East Studies Insights, Volume 2, Issue 5 (November 2011).