Construcao de cenarios prospectivos em sistema agroalimentar de Vacaria, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil

• Published in: Agroalimentaria Caracas 2014-01, Vol.20 (38), p.137
• Main Authors: Cruz, Marcia Rohr, Priesnitz Filho, Walter, Silva, Joao Lindomar Serafini, Camargo, Maria Emilia, Motta, Marta Elisete Ventura, Malafaia, Guilherme Cunha
• Format: Article
• Language: Spanish
• ISSN: 1316-0354

This research aims at constructing prospective scenarios for fruit growing in the Vacaria region, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Prospective scenarios represent an important tool for business management, because they make possible to trace options on the future through a logical sequence of events, identifying bottlenecks and strengths of the sector under uncertainty conditions. The theoretical references used to develop this study were the Local Agri-food System, Prospective Scenarios, and fruit growing approach. A qualitativequantitative approach, in a systemic research, was used by considering the numerous relationships that presents fruit growing. For the construction of the scenarios, we used Grumbach methodology, based on the Delphi and the cross-impact matrix methods. On the basis of the cross-impact matrix, three scenarios were selected, representing 82.40% of the total probability of occurrences of all scenarios considered by the method: the most probable was the trend scenario, ideal for alternative food systems for fruit in the Vacaria region, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Such scenarios allow early identification of weaknesses and opportunities, as well as reducing uncertainty and introducing strategic actions to balance the fruit sector. The results may also help to subsidize the development of new research in the field of fruit growing. Thus, in the end, authors point out suggestions for future research. Key words: local agri-food system, prospective scenarios, systemic vision, uncertainty, fruit farming, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil O objetivo desta pesquisa foi a construcao de cenarios prospectivos para a fruticultura da regiao de Vacaria, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil. Os cenarios prospectivos representam uma importante ferramenta para a gestao de negocios, pois com esta ferramenta e possivel se tracar alternativas sobre o futuro atraves de uma sucessao logica de eventos, identificando-se os gargalos e os pontos fortes do setor que se esta analisando sob condicoes de incertezas. Os referenciais teoricos utilizados para o desenvolvimento deste estudo foram 0 Sistema Agroalimentar Local e os Cenarios Prospectivos, tendo como objeto de estudo a fruticultura. Foi utilizada a pesquisa quali-quantitativa, com uma abordagem sistemica, considerando-se as varias inter-relacoes presentes no objeto de estudo. Para a construcao dos cenarios utilizou-se a metodologia Grumbach, baseandose no metodo Delphi e no metodo da matriz de impactos cruzados. Como principais re