The Relationship between Exchange Rates and Foreign Trade in Turkey: Evidence from Time-Varying Causality Tests/ Turkiye'de Doviz Kuru ve Dis Ticaret Iliskisi: Zamana Gore Degisen Nedensellik Testlerinden Bulgular

• Published in: Cankiri Karatekin Universitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakultesi Dergisi 2023-06, Vol.13 (2), p.454
• Main Authors: Bahtiyar, Bersu, Gudenoglu, Erdem
• Format: Article
• Language: Turkish
• Subjects: Economic research; Foreign exchange; International trade; Prices and rates
• ISSN: 1308-5549
• DOI: 10.18074/ckuiibfd.1222438

The exchange rate is an important tool in terms of both its level and the policies implemented to determine it. Exchange rates, which may affect many economic indicators, especially foreign trade, are also important for the Turkish economy, which has adopted a new development strategy that focuses on exports since the 1980s. As a developing country with a production structure with a high imported input intensity, the recent domestic and international developments have led to a high course in exchange rates with an unstable outlook in Turkey. In this study, the existence and continuity of the causality relationship between exchange rate, export and import have been investigated using monthly data covering the period of 1994-2021, and the effects of different cyclical conditions on the exchange rate-foreign trade relationship have been discussed. The findings of the analysis using the novel time-varying causality tests provide evidence that the views that argue that gains in favor of the country can be achieved in foreign trade with competitive exchange rate policies are not valid in the Turkey case. Keywords: Exchange rate, exports, imports, time-varying causality JEL Classification Codes: F10, F31, O24 Doviz kurlari, gerek seviyesi gerekse bu seviyenin belirlenmesinde hayata gecirilen kur politikalari baglaminda onemli bir ekonomik aractir. Basta dis ticaret olmak uzere bircok ekonomik gostergeyi etkileyebilen doviz kurlari, 1980'li yillarla birlikte ihracatin merkeze alindigi yeni bir kalkinma stratejisinin benimsendigi Turkiye ekonomisi icin de onem tasimaktadir. Ithal girdi yogunluguna sahip bir uretim yapisina sahip gelismekte olan bir ulke olan Turkiye'de son donemde doviz kurlarinin istikrarsiz bir goruntu esliginde yuksek bir seyir izledigi gozlemlenmektedir. Bu calismada Turkiye'de doviz kuru, ihracat ve ithalat arasindaki nedensellik iliskisinin varligi ve surekliligi 1994-2021 yillari arasi aylik veriler yardimiyla arastirilmis, ekonomik faaliyetin yukselme ve daralma donemlerinden olusan konjonkturel gelismelerin kur-dis ticaret iliskisi uzerindeki etkileri konu edilmistir. Yeni nesil zamana gore degisen nedensellik testlerinden yararlanilan analiz bulgulari, rekabetci kur politikalariyla dis ticarette ulke lehine kazanimlar elde edilebilecegini savunan goruslerin Turkiye orneginde gecerli olmadigi yonunde kanitlar sunmaktadir. Anahtar kelimeler: Doviz kuru, ihracat, ithalat, zamana gore degisen nedensellik Jel Siniflandirma Kodlari: F10, F31, O