Climatic impacts on winter wheat yields in Picardy, France and Rostov, Russia: 1973–2010

• Published in: Agricultural and forest meteorology 2013-07, Vol.176, p.25-37
• Main Authors: Licker, Rachel, Kucharik, Christopher J., Doré, Thierry, Lindeman, Mark J., Makowski, David
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agricultural and forest climatology and meteorology. Irrigation. Drainage; Agricultural sciences; Agriculture; Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions; Biological and medical sciences; Climate; Climate change; Correlation; Crop yield; France; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General agronomy. Plant production; Life Sciences; Precipitation; Russia; spring; Summer; temperature; Trends; Triticum aestivum; Wheat
• ISSN: 0168-1923; 1873-2240
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.02.010

► We examined the impacts of climate on wheat yields in important breadbaskets. ► Winter wheat yields exhibited strong responses to numerous climate parameters. ► Climate in Rostov, Russia and Picardy, France has changed significantly. ► Recent climate change has likely reduced wheat yield trends in Picardy by 11%. ► Strong changes in climate have likely not impacted Rostov's wheat yields yet. The influence of climate on winter wheat yields were examined in two important global breadbaskets—the Picardy Region of northern France and the Rostov Oblast of southern Russia. Thirty-year climatologies were established for each region and the magnitude of change between 1973 and 2010 was quantified for a variety of climate variables important to crop development. Using a “first differences” analysis, the aspects of climate that winter wheat yields have been most sensitive to were identified and the impact of changes in these variables on winter wheat yield trends was quantified. A number of aspects of climate have changed at unprecedented rates in the two regions. Between 1973 and 2010, summer precipitation totals decreased by 61% and maximum summer temperatures increased by 4°C in Rostov, while fall precipitation totals decreased by 9% and maximum spring temperatures increased by 2.4°C in Picardy. In addition, winter wheat yields were strongly correlated with a number of climate variables, although the most important drivers of yield variability differed between the two regions. May and June average temperatures explained 49% (p