Assessment of thermal change in cold avalanching glaciers in relation to climate warming

High‐elevation glaciers covered by cold firn are undergoing substantial warming in response to ongoing climate change. This warming is affecting the ice/rock interface temperature, the primary driver of avalanching glacier instability on steep slopes. Prediction of future potential instability there...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical research letters 2015-08, Vol.42 (15), p.6382-6390
Main Authors: Gilbert, A., Vincent, C., Gagliardini, O., Krug, J., Berthier, E.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Alps
Area
avalanching glacier
Climate
Climate change
Cold
Density
Elevation
Environmental assessment
Environmental Sciences
Evaluation
Evolution
Firn
glacier hazards
Glaciers
Global warming
Ice
Instability
Interface stability
Mathematical models
Modelling
Moisture content
Risk
Rocks
Slope
Slope stability
Slopes
Stability
State of the art
Temperature
Temperature effects
Thermal evolution
thermal regime
Three dimensional models
Velocity
Water content
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Summary:High‐elevation glaciers covered by cold firn are undergoing substantial warming in response to ongoing climate change. This warming is affecting the ice/rock interface temperature, the primary driver of avalanching glacier instability on steep slopes. Prediction of future potential instability therefore requires appropriate modeling of the thermal evolution of these glaciers. Application of a state‐of‐the‐art model to a glacier in the French Alps (Taconnaz) has provided the first evaluation of the temperature evolution of a cold hanging glacier through this century. Our observations and three‐dimensional modeling of the glacier response (velocity, thickness, temperature, density, and water content) to climate change indicate that Taconnaz glacier will become temperate and potentially unstable over a large area by the end of the 21st century. The risk induced by this glacier hazard is high for the populated region below and makes observation and modeling of such glaciers a priority. Key Points Cold hanging glaciers below 3800 m in the Alps are becoming temperate Ice masses on steep slopes could become unstable during the current century in the Alps The risk related to hanging glaciers is going to considerably increase
ISSN:0094-8276
1944-8007
DOI:10.1002/2015GL064838