Unveiling the Potential of Deep Learning Models for Solar Flare Prediction in Near-Limb Regions

• Main Authors: Pandey, Chetraj, Angryk, Rafal A., Aydin, Berkay
• Format: Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Subjects: Analytical models; Computational modeling; Deep learning; Line-of-sight propagation; Magnetic resonance imaging; near-limb prediction; Sensitivity; solar flares; Transfer learning
• ISSN: 1946-0759
• DOI: 10.1109/ICMLA58977.2023.00103

This study aims to evaluate the performance of deep learning models in predicting \geq \mathrm{M} -class solar flares with a prediction window of 24 hours, using hourly sampled full-disk line-of-sight (LoS) magnetogram images, particularly focusing on the often overlooked flare events corresponding to the near-limb regions (beyond +70^{\circ} of the solar disk). We trained three well-known deep learning architectures-AlexNet, VGG 16, and ResNet34 using transfer learning and compared and evaluated the overall performance of our models using true skill statistics (TSS) and Heidke skill score (HSS) and computed recall scores to understand the prediction sensitivity in central and near-limb regions for both X-and M -class flares. The following points summarize the key findings of our study: (1) The highest overall performance was observed with the AlexNet-based model, which achieved an average \text{TSS}\sim 0.53 and \text{HSS} \sim 0.37 ; (2) Further, a spatial analysis of recall scores disclosed that for the near-limb events, the VGG16- and ResNet34-based models exhibited superior prediction sensitivity. The best results, however, were seen with the ResNet34-based model for the near-limb flares, where the average recall was approximately 0.59 (the recall for X- and M-class was 0.81 and 0.56 respectively) and (3) Our research findings demonstrate that our models are capable of discerning complex spatial patterns from full-disk magnetograms and exhibit skill in predicting solar flares, even in the vicinity of near-limb regions. This ability holds substantial importance for operational flare forecasting systems.