Factors that Impact the Accuracy of Clustering-Based Load Forecasting

• Published in: IEEE transactions on industry applications 2016-09, Vol.52 (5), p.3625-3630, Article 3625
• Main Authors: Xin Wang, Wei-Jen Lee, Heng Huang, Szabados, Robert Louis, Wang, David Yanshi, Van Olinda, Peter
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Accuracy; Clustering; Companies; Electric utilities; Estimation; Forecasting; K-means clustering; least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM); Load forecasting; Load modeling; Predictive models; Support vector machines
• ISSN: 0093-9994; 1939-9367
• DOI: 10.1109/TIA.2016.2558563

Due to the deregulation of the power system, the electric power industry is undergoing a transformation in terms of its planning and operation strategies. Because of the importance in reducing financial and operational risk, improving load forecasting accuracy is paramount. In some load forecasting applications, K-means clustering is used to group customers prior to forecasting. This method has been shown to improve the accuracy of load predictions. However, there are situations where K-means clustering reduces load forecasting accuracy. This paper studies the factors that affect the performance of K-means clustering. Additionally, several strategies have been proposed to tackle the lower estimation accuracy problems for this clustering algorithm. The data used for validating the proposed strategies associated with the factors is from the Consolidated Edison Company of New York, Inc. (Con Edison). The mean absolute percent error and relative mean square error are utilized to evaluate the forecasting results of K-means-based least squares support vector machines (LS-SVM) and preprocessed K-means-based LS-SVM. Additionally, the outperformance of preprocessed K-means-based LS-SVM is demonstrated via the data results.