Long Term Planning for Indian Power Sector with Integration of Renewable Energy Sources

• Main Authors: Mukhopadhyay, Subrata, Gupta, Praveen, Arya, Brijesh K, Rajput, Ashok K, Menghani, Vijay, Batra, Pankaj, Sharma, Sandesh
• Format: Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Subjects: Duck Curves; Indian Power Sector; Intended Nationally Determined Contribution; Load forecasting; Long-Term Planning; Planning; Pollution; Renewable energy sources; Sensitivity; Standardization; Voltage measurement
• ISSN: 2642-5289
• DOI: 10.1109/PIICON49524.2020.9112877

India being a developing country has the need of both addition in generation and replacing the old ones commensurate with ever-increasing demand in the domestic, agricultural, commercial, and industrial sectors. With Demand Side Management (DSM) resorted to effectively, however, there exists potential of shaving peak, and consequently to some extent energy in this important infrastructure of economy. Having an installed capacity of about 81 GW from Renewable Energy Sources (RES) out of a total of 360 GW by July 2019 it has an ambitious plan for significant addition of renewables reaching the level of 175 GW (100 GW from solar including 40 GW of rooftop, 60 GW from wind, 10 GW from bio-mass, and 5 from small hydro), and 275 GW respectively by the end of country's 13 th (March 2022) and 14 th five-year plan (March 2027). Thus, as estimated, by 2030 it may be in a position to contribute about 48% from renewables only. This is based on detailed studies on load forecasting in different sectors geographically over pan-India in different time-frame followed by estimation of potential from RES. The latter consist of development from solar, wind, biomass, waste, etc. both off-grid and on-grid. Finally planning has been carried out simulating likely scenario at different point of time with system having sizeable penetration of renewables in the overall requirement of generation to meet the electricity demand. Technological developments, standardization, and regulatory measures have paved the way for large-scale integration of renewables to the Extra High Voltage (EHV) grid by pooling the surplus from one region for haulage to other regions for distribution of electricity. In the process gradually conventional fossil-fuel based generating plants are being phased out, though it continues with still addition of the backlog in the system. However, in the process Plant Load Factor (PLF) of such type of generation is coming down enabling lessening pollution too. With economy of scale and more accuracy achieved in predicting intermittent generation from renewables, it has already been possible to achieve much reduction in per unit charges of electricity from RES, notably from both, solar and wind.In the paper based on Long-Term Load Forecasting, results of studies to find out optimal mix of existing conventional fossil-fuel based generation integrated with renewables from various sources have been depicted based on computation. While carrying out studies specifically for t