Presenting Scientific Theories Within Risk Assessments

• Published in: Human and ecological risk assessment 2005-04, Vol.11 (2), p.271-287
• Main Authors: Marks, Harry, Colemana, Margaret
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Causality; core and auxiliary hypotheses; evaluative; explicative; falsification; Health risk assessment; Hypotheses; Mathematical models; Public health; regulative; Theory
• ISSN: 1080-7039; 1549-7860
• DOI: 10.1080/10807030590925821

We propose a structure for presenting risk assessments with the purpose of enhancing the transparency of the selection process of scientific theories and models derived from them. The structure has two stages, with 7 steps, where the stages involve two types of theories: core and auxiliary, which need to be identified in order to explain and evaluate observations and predictions. Core theories are those that are "fundamental" to the phenomena being observed, whereas auxiliary theories are those that describe or explain the actual observation process of the phenomena. The formulation of a scientific theory involves three constitutive components or types of judgments: explanative, evaluative, and regulative or aesthetic, driven by reason. Two perspectives guided us in developing the proposed structure: (1) In a risk assessment explanations based on notions of causality can be used as a tool for developing models and predictions of possible events outside the range of direct experience. The use of causality for development of models is based on judgments, reflecting regulative or aesthetic conceptualizations of different phenomena and how they (should) fit together in the world. (2) Weight of evidence evaluation should be based on falsification principles for excluding models, rather than validation or justification principles that select the best or nearly best-fitting models. Falsification entails discussion that identifies challenges to proposed models, and reconciles apparent inconsistencies between models and data. Based on the discussion of these perspectives the 7 steps of the structure are: the first stage for core theories, (A) scientific concepts, (B) causality network, and (C) mathematical model; and the second stage for auxiliary theories, (D) data interpretation, (E) statistical model, (F) evaluation (weight of evidence), and (G) reconciliation, which includes the actual decision formulation.