Disruption prediction using a full convolutional neural network on EAST

• Published in: Plasma physics and controlled fusion 2021-02, Vol.63 (2), p.25008
• Main Authors: Guo, B H, Shen, B, Chen, D L, Rea, C, Granetz, R S, Huang, Y, Zeng, L, Zhang, H, Qian, J P, Sun, Y W, Xiao, B J
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: convolutional neural network; deep learning; disruption prediction; plasma
• ISSN: 0741-3335; 1361-6587
• DOI: 10.1088/1361-6587/abcbab

In this study, a full convolutional neural network is trained on a large database of experimental EAST data to classify disruptive discharges and distinguish them from non-disruptive discharges. The database contains 14 diagnostic parameters from the ∼104 discharges (disruptive and non-disruptive). The test set contains 417 disruptive discharges and 999 non-disruptive discharges, which are used to evaluate the performance of the model. The results reveal that the true positive (TP) rate is ∼ 0.827, while the false positive (FP) rate is ∼0.067. This indicates that 72 disruptive discharges and 67 non-disruptive discharges are misclassified in the test set. The FPs are investigated in detail and are found to emerge due to some subtle disturbances in the signals, which lead to misjudgment of the model. Therefore, hundreds of non-disruptive discharges from training set, containing time slices of small disturbances, are artificially added into the training database for retraining the model. The same test set is used to assess the performance of the improved model. The TP rate of the improved model increases up to 0.875, while its FP rate decreases to 0.061. Overall, the proposed data-driven predicted model exhibits immense potential for application in long pulse fusion devices such as ITER.