Quantifying the heart failure epidemic: prevalence, incidence rate, lifetime risk and prognosis of heart failure

• Published in: European heart journal 2004-09, Vol.25 (18), p.1614-1619
• Main Authors: Bleumink, Gysèle S., Knetsch, Anneke M., Sturkenboom, Miriam C.J.M., Straus, Sabine M.J.M., Hofman, Albert, Deckers, Jaap W., Witteman, Jacqueline C.M., Stricker, Bruno H.Ch
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• ISSN: 0195-668X; 1522-9645
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ehj.2004.06.038

Aims To determine the prevalence, incidence rate, lifetime risk and prognosis of heart failure. Methods and Results The Rotterdam Study is a prospective population-based cohort study in 7983 participants aged ⩾55. Heart failure was defined according to criteria of the European Society of Cardiology. Prevalence was higher in men and increased with age from 0.9% in subjects aged 55–64 to 17.4% in those aged ⩾85. Incidence rate of heart failure was 14.4/1000 person-years (95% CI 13.4–15.5) and was higher in men (17.6/1000 man-years, 95% CI 15.8–19.5) than in women (12.5/1000 woman-years, 95% CI 11.3–13.8). Incidence rate increased with age from 1.4/1000 person-years in those aged 55–59 to 47.4/1000 person-years in those aged ⩾90. Lifetime risk was 33% for men and 29% for women at the age of 55. Survival after incident heart failure was 86% at 30 days, 63% at 1 year, 51% at 2 years and 35% at 5 years of follow-up. Conclusion Prevalence and incidence rates of heart failure are high. In individuals aged 55, almost 1 in 3 will develop heart failure during their remaining lifespan. Heart failure continues to be a fatal disease, with only 35% surviving 5 years after the first diagnosis.