Loading…

Suspense and Surprise

We model demand for noninstrumental information, drawing on the idea that people derive entertainment utility from suspense and surprise. A period has more suspense if the variance of the next period’s beliefs is greater. A period has more surprise if the current belief is further from the last peri...

Full description

Saved in:

Bibliographic Details
Published in:	The Journal of political economy 2015-02, Vol.123 (1), p.215-260
Main Authors:	Ely, Jeffrey, Frankel, Alexander, Kamenica, Emir
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Subjects:	Auctions Bayesian method Belief networks Economic models Economic theory Entertainment Information policy Literature Martingales Murderers Political economy Seeding Soccer Sports Studies Surprise Tennis Utility functions Utility theory Variance analysis
Citations:	Items that this one cites Items that cite this one
Online Access:	Get full text
Tags:	Add Tag No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!

cited_by	cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c438t-6f76b929792fe656f6ecfe3c0bef87d131f3ab0af4776f89689d212eebc311a43
cites	cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c438t-6f76b929792fe656f6ecfe3c0bef87d131f3ab0af4776f89689d212eebc311a43
container_end_page	260
container_issue	1
container_start_page	215
container_title	The Journal of political economy
container_volume	123
creator	Ely, Jeffrey Frankel, Alexander Kamenica, Emir
description	We model demand for noninstrumental information, drawing on the idea that people derive entertainment utility from suspense and surprise. A period has more suspense if the variance of the next period’s beliefs is greater. A period has more surprise if the current belief is further from the last period’s belief. Under these definitions, we analyze the optimal way to reveal information over time so as to maximize expected suspense or surprise experienced by a Bayesian audience. We apply our results to the design of mystery novels, political primaries, casinos, game shows, auctions, and sports.
doi_str_mv	10.1086/677350
format	article
fullrecord	<record><control><sourceid>jstor_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_jstor_primary_10_1086_677350</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><jstor_id>10.1086/677350</jstor_id><sourcerecordid>10.1086/677350</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c438t-6f76b929792fe656f6ecfe3c0bef87d131f3ab0af4776f89689d212eebc311a43</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNqNkElLw0AUxwdRsFa9eS8o4iU6SzLLUYobFDxUwdswmbzRhjSJ85pDv70jEQqC4Lu8y4__Rsgpo9eMankjlRIF3SMTVgiVFSJ_2ycTSjnPhKb6kBwh1jQdo2JCzpYD9tAizFxbzZZD7OMK4ZgcBNcgnPz8KXm9v3uZP2aL54en-e0i87nQm0wGJUvDjTI8gCxkkOADCE9LCFpVTLAgXEldyJWSQRupTcUZByi9YMzlYkquRt0-dp8D4MauV-ihaVwL3YCWSZm6CG6KhJ7_QutuiG1Kl6hC5UwbIxN1OVI-dogRgk191i5uLaP2ex07rrNzHvzHyrv3ro-AuNMcMdtXIaEX_0B3AWvcdPEv3y-I9nny</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>1657418996</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Suspense and Surprise</title><source>EBSCOhost Business Source Ultimate</source><source>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)</source><source>EBSCOhost Econlit with Full Text</source><source>JSTOR Archival Journals and Primary Sources Collection</source><source>University of Chicago Press Journals</source><creator>Ely, Jeffrey ; Frankel, Alexander ; Kamenica, Emir</creator><creatorcontrib>Ely, Jeffrey ; Frankel, Alexander ; Kamenica, Emir</creatorcontrib><description>We model demand for noninstrumental information, drawing on the idea that people derive entertainment utility from suspense and surprise. A period has more suspense if the variance of the next period’s beliefs is greater. A period has more surprise if the current belief is further from the last period’s belief. Under these definitions, we analyze the optimal way to reveal information over time so as to maximize expected suspense or surprise experienced by a Bayesian audience. We apply our results to the design of mystery novels, political primaries, casinos, game shows, auctions, and sports.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0022-3808</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1537-534X</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1086/677350</identifier><identifier>CODEN: JLPEAR</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Chicago: University of Chicago Press</publisher><subject>Auctions ; Bayesian method ; Belief networks ; Economic models ; Economic theory ; Entertainment ; Information policy ; Literature ; Martingales ; Murderers ; Political economy ; Seeding ; Soccer ; Sports ; Studies ; Surprise ; Tennis ; Utility functions ; Utility theory ; Variance analysis</subject><ispartof>The Journal of political economy, 2015-02, Vol.123 (1), p.215-260</ispartof><rights>2015 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.</rights><rights>Copyright University of Chicago, acting through its Press Feb 2015</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c438t-6f76b929792fe656f6ecfe3c0bef87d131f3ab0af4776f89689d212eebc311a43</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c438t-6f76b929792fe656f6ecfe3c0bef87d131f3ab0af4776f89689d212eebc311a43</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdf/10.1086%2F677350$$EPDF$$P50$$Guchicagopress$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086%2F677350$$EHTML$$P50$$Guchicagopress$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,27901,27902,33200,33201,53994,53998</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Ely, Jeffrey</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Frankel, Alexander</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kamenica, Emir</creatorcontrib><title>Suspense and Surprise</title><title>The Journal of political economy</title><description>We model demand for noninstrumental information, drawing on the idea that people derive entertainment utility from suspense and surprise. A period has more suspense if the variance of the next period’s beliefs is greater. A period has more surprise if the current belief is further from the last period’s belief. Under these definitions, we analyze the optimal way to reveal information over time so as to maximize expected suspense or surprise experienced by a Bayesian audience. We apply our results to the design of mystery novels, political primaries, casinos, game shows, auctions, and sports.</description><subject>Auctions</subject><subject>Bayesian method</subject><subject>Belief networks</subject><subject>Economic models</subject><subject>Economic theory</subject><subject>Entertainment</subject><subject>Information policy</subject><subject>Literature</subject><subject>Martingales</subject><subject>Murderers</subject><subject>Political economy</subject><subject>Seeding</subject><subject>Soccer</subject><subject>Sports</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Surprise</subject><subject>Tennis</subject><subject>Utility functions</subject><subject>Utility theory</subject><subject>Variance analysis</subject><issn>0022-3808</issn><issn>1537-534X</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2015</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>8BJ</sourceid><recordid>eNqNkElLw0AUxwdRsFa9eS8o4iU6SzLLUYobFDxUwdswmbzRhjSJ85pDv70jEQqC4Lu8y4__Rsgpo9eMankjlRIF3SMTVgiVFSJ_2ycTSjnPhKb6kBwh1jQdo2JCzpYD9tAizFxbzZZD7OMK4ZgcBNcgnPz8KXm9v3uZP2aL54en-e0i87nQm0wGJUvDjTI8gCxkkOADCE9LCFpVTLAgXEldyJWSQRupTcUZByi9YMzlYkquRt0-dp8D4MauV-ihaVwL3YCWSZm6CG6KhJ7_QutuiG1Kl6hC5UwbIxN1OVI-dogRgk191i5uLaP2ex07rrNzHvzHyrv3ro-AuNMcMdtXIaEX_0B3AWvcdPEv3y-I9nny</recordid><startdate>20150201</startdate><enddate>20150201</enddate><creator>Ely, Jeffrey</creator><creator>Frankel, Alexander</creator><creator>Kamenica, Emir</creator><general>University of Chicago Press</general><general>University of Chicago, acting through its Press</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>8BJ</scope><scope>FQK</scope><scope>JBE</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20150201</creationdate><title>Suspense and Surprise</title><author>Ely, Jeffrey ; Frankel, Alexander ; Kamenica, Emir</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c438t-6f76b929792fe656f6ecfe3c0bef87d131f3ab0af4776f89689d212eebc311a43</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2015</creationdate><topic>Auctions</topic><topic>Bayesian method</topic><topic>Belief networks</topic><topic>Economic models</topic><topic>Economic theory</topic><topic>Entertainment</topic><topic>Information policy</topic><topic>Literature</topic><topic>Martingales</topic><topic>Murderers</topic><topic>Political economy</topic><topic>Seeding</topic><topic>Soccer</topic><topic>Sports</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>Surprise</topic><topic>Tennis</topic><topic>Utility functions</topic><topic>Utility theory</topic><topic>Variance analysis</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Ely, Jeffrey</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Frankel, Alexander</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kamenica, Emir</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><jtitle>The Journal of political economy</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Ely, Jeffrey</au><au>Frankel, Alexander</au><au>Kamenica, Emir</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Suspense and Surprise</atitle><jtitle>The Journal of political economy</jtitle><date>2015-02-01</date><risdate>2015</risdate><volume>123</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>215</spage><epage>260</epage><pages>215-260</pages><issn>0022-3808</issn><eissn>1537-534X</eissn><coden>JLPEAR</coden><abstract>We model demand for noninstrumental information, drawing on the idea that people derive entertainment utility from suspense and surprise. A period has more suspense if the variance of the next period’s beliefs is greater. A period has more surprise if the current belief is further from the last period’s belief. Under these definitions, we analyze the optimal way to reveal information over time so as to maximize expected suspense or surprise experienced by a Bayesian audience. We apply our results to the design of mystery novels, political primaries, casinos, game shows, auctions, and sports.</abstract><cop>Chicago</cop><pub>University of Chicago Press</pub><doi>10.1086/677350</doi><tpages>46</tpages></addata></record>
fulltext	fulltext
identifier	ISSN: 0022-3808
ispartof	The Journal of political economy, 2015-02, Vol.123 (1), p.215-260
issn	0022-3808 1537-534X
language	eng
recordid	cdi_jstor_primary_10_1086_677350
source	EBSCOhost Business Source Ultimate; International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS); EBSCOhost Econlit with Full Text; JSTOR Archival Journals and Primary Sources Collection; University of Chicago Press Journals
subjects	Auctions Bayesian method Belief networks Economic models Economic theory Entertainment Information policy Literature Martingales Murderers Political economy Seeding Soccer Sports Studies Surprise Tennis Utility functions Utility theory Variance analysis
title	Suspense and Surprise
url	http://sfxeu10.hosted.exlibrisgroup.com/loughborough?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-02-02T02%3A01%3A15IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-jstor_cross&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Suspense%20and%20Surprise&rft.jtitle=The%20Journal%20of%20political%20economy&rft.au=Ely,%20Jeffrey&rft.date=2015-02-01&rft.volume=123&rft.issue=1&rft.spage=215&rft.epage=260&rft.pages=215-260&rft.issn=0022-3808&rft.eissn=1537-534X&rft.coden=JLPEAR&rft_id=info:doi/10.1086/677350&rft_dat=%3Cjstor_cross%3E10.1086/677350%3C/jstor_cross%3E%3Cgrp_id%3Ecdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c438t-6f76b929792fe656f6ecfe3c0bef87d131f3ab0af4776f89689d212eebc311a43%3C/grp_id%3E%3Coa%3E%3C/oa%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=1657418996&rft_id=info:pmid/&rft_jstor_id=10.1086/677350&rfr_iscdi=true