The relationship between interannual and long-term cloud feedbacks

• Published in: Geophysical research letters 2015-12, Vol.42 (23), p.10,463-10,469
• Main Authors: Zhou, Chen, Zelinka, Mark D., Dessler, Andrew E., Klein, Stephen A.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Brackish; Climate; Climate change; climate change and variability; Climate models; Cloud cover; cloud feedback; Clouds; Computer simulation; Correlation; Covariance; ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Feedback; Fluctuation; GEOSCIENCES; Global warming; Intercomparison; low cloud cover; Marine; Profiles; Sea surface; Sea surface warming; Sensitivity; Surface temperature; Temperature (air-sea); Time; Vertical profiles
• ISSN: 0094-8276; 1944-8007
• DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066698

Analyses of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations suggest that climate models with more positive cloud feedback in response to interannual climate fluctuations also have more positive cloud feedback in response to long‐term global warming. Ensemble mean vertical profiles of cloud change in response to interannual and long‐term surface warming are similar, and the ensemble mean cloud feedback is positive on both timescales. However, the average long‐term cloud feedback is smaller than the interannual cloud feedback, likely due to differences in surface warming pattern on the two timescales. Low cloud cover (LCC) change in response to interannual and long‐term global surface warming is found to be well correlated across models and explains over half of the covariance between interannual and long‐term cloud feedback. The intermodel correlation of LCC across timescales likely results from model‐specific sensitivities of LCC to sea surface warming. Key Points Interannual and long‐term cloud feedbacks are well correlated across models Low cloud cover feedback is most responsible for this correlation Low cloud cover sensitivity to thermodynamics partially explains the correlation