Coupling numerical simulation and machine learning to model shale gas production at different time resolutions

Reservoir simulation is the most robust tool for simulating gas production from the desorption controlled and hydraulically fractured shale reservoir. Incorporation of the created massive hydraulic fractures explicitly into the simulation model is the major challenge during the model development and...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of natural gas science and engineering 2015-07, Vol.25 (C), p.380-392
Main Authors: Kalantari-Dahaghi, Amirmasoud, Mohaghegh, Shahab, Esmaili, Soodabeh
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
History matching
Machine learning
Multilateral pad
Numerical simulation
Pattern recognition
Shale gas
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Summary:Reservoir simulation is the most robust tool for simulating gas production from the desorption controlled and hydraulically fractured shale reservoir. Incorporation of the created massive hydraulic fractures explicitly into the simulation model is the major challenge during the model development and computation phases. A pattern recognition-based proxy model is our proposed technique to overcome the aforementioned problem by modeling time successive shale gas production at the hydraulic fracture cluster level at different time resolutions (Short-, medium- and long term). Ensemble of multiple, interconnected adaptive neuro-fuzzy systems create the core for the development of the shale proxy models. In this approach, unlike reduced order models, the physics and the space-time resolution are not reduced. Instead of using pre-defined functional forms that are more frequently used to develop response surfaces, a series of machine learning algorithms that conform to the system theory are used. A history-matched Marcellus shale gas pad with six horizontal laterals and 169 clusters of hydraulic fracture is used as a base case for shale proxy model development. Additionally, several realizations are defined in order to capture the uncertainties inherent in the shale simulation model. The proxy model is validated using a blind simulation run that is not used during the model development process. The developed shale proxy model re-generates the simulation results for methane production for 169 clusters hydraulic fracture in a second with high accuracy (
ISSN:1875-5100
DOI:10.1016/j.jngse.2015.04.018