A model for simulating adaptive, dynamic flows on networks: Application to petroleum infrastructure

•We describe a model of adaptive responses of infrastructure networks to disruptions.•We model commodity flows as diffusion with nonlinearities imposing capacity limits.•Behavioral parameters govern responses to perturbations via market transactions.•A wide range of system responses can be covered u...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Reliability engineering & system safety 2018-01, Vol.169 (C), p.451-465
Main Authors: Corbet, Thomas F., Beyeler, Walt, Wilson, Michael L., Flanagan, Tatiana P.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
02 PETROLEUM
Computer simulation
Critical infrastructure
Decisions
Diffusion
Earthquakes
ENGINEERING
Infrastructure
Infrastructure disruption
Network flow
Networks
Petroleum
Petroleum infrastructure
Reliability engineering
Resilience metrics
Scalability
Seismic activity
Simulation
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:•We describe a model of adaptive responses of infrastructure networks to disruptions.•We model commodity flows as diffusion with nonlinearities imposing capacity limits.•Behavioral parameters govern responses to perturbations via market transactions.•A wide range of system responses can be covered using parameters of the model.•We illustrate scalability through application to the U.S. petroleum infrastructure. Simulation models can improve decisions meant to control the consequences of disruptions to critical infrastructures. We describe a dynamic flow model on networks purposed to inform analyses by those concerned about consequences of disruptions to infrastructures and to help policy makers design robust mitigations. We conceptualize the adaptive responses of infrastructure networks to perturbations as market transactions and business decisions of operators. We approximate commodity flows in these networks by a diffusion equation, with nonlinearities introduced to model capacity limits. To illustrate the behavior and scalability of the model, we show its application first on two simple networks, then on petroleum infrastructure in the United States, where we analyze the effects of a hypothesized earthquake.
ISSN:0951-8320
1879-0836
DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2017.09.026