Light-duty vehicle fleet electrification in the United States and its effects on global agricultural markets

• Published in: Ecological economics 2022-10, Vol.200 (C), p.107536, Article 107536
• Main Authors: Dumortier, Jerome, Elobeid, Amani, Carriquiry, Miguel
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Bioenergy; Decarbonization; Electric vehicles; Greenhouse gas emissions; Land-use change; Shared socioeconomic pathways
• ISSN: 0921-8009; 1873-6106
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107536

Electrification of the light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet in the United States (U.S.) decreases the long-term demand for maize ethanol. This analysis assesses the consequences of accelerated penetration of electric vehicles into the U.S. LDV fleet on global food production, prices, land-use, and carbon emissions. Population and income growth are framed around Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). The scenarios progressively increase the 2050 sales share of electric LDVs to 100%. The results indicate a maximum price decline of 9.5% for maize and a significant increase in U.S. maize exports. The fleet electrification also leads to a decline in global cropland compared to the baseline by up to 4.4 million hectares at the end of the projection period. Mean GHG reductions in the 100% LDV sales scenario range from 39.4% to 52.0% of 2019 emissions from gasoline LDVs depending on the SSP. Thus, transportation policies supporting additional electric vehicles reduce food prices and carbon emissions. •More rapid electrification of the U.S. vehicle fleet reduces maize ethanol demand.•Analysis of up to 100% sales share of electric vehicles in the U.S. by 2050.•Major changes in global agricultural trade from higher share of electric vehicles.•Carbon savings from land sparing of up to 87.5% of 2019 gasoline car emissions.