Interpretations of Probability in Evolutionary Theory

The ubiquitous probabilities of evolutionary theory (ET) spark the question: Which interpretation of probability is the most appropriate for ET? There is reason to think that, whatever we take probabilities in ET to be, they must be consistent with both determinism and indeterminism. I argue that th...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Philosophy of science 2003-12, Vol.70 (5), p.1317-1328
Main Author: Millstein, Roberta L.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Alleles
Butterflies
Determinism
Evolution
Evolutionary biology
Evolutionary processes
Evolutionary theories
Frequentism
History of science and technology
Indeterminism
Logic and calculus
Mathematical sciences and techniques
Philosophy of science
Population size
Probabilities
Probability
Quantum theory
Science
Science and technology
Transition probabilities
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Summary:The ubiquitous probabilities of evolutionary theory (ET) spark the question: Which interpretation of probability is the most appropriate for ET? There is reason to think that, whatever we take probabilities in ET to be, they must be consistent with both determinism and indeterminism. I argue that the probabilities used in ET are objective in a realist sense, if not in an indeterministic sense. Furthermore, there are a number of interpretations of probability that are objective and would be consistent with deterministic evolution and indeterministic evolution. However, I suggest that evolutionary probabilities are best understood as propensities of population‐level kinds.
ISSN:0031-8248
1539-767X
DOI:10.1086/377410