Residual Diagnostics for Growth Mixture Models: Examining the Impact of a Preventive Intervention on Multiple Trajectories of Aggressive Behavior

• Published in: Journal of the American Statistical Association 2005-09, Vol.100 (471), p.1054-1076
• Main Authors: Wang, Chen-Pin, Hendricks Brown, C, Bandeen-Roche, Karen
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Aggressiveness; Bayesian analysis; Covariance; Decision theory; Diagnostic methods; Empirical bayes; Exact sciences and technology; Experimental data; Growth mixture modeling; Intervention; Latent variables; Marginal maximum likelihood; Mathematics; Maximum likelihood method; Modeling; Multilevel models; Multivariate analysis; Parametric models; Population growth; Preventive intervention; Probability and statistics; Pseudoclass; Sciences and techniques of general use; Statistical discrepancies; Statistical variance; Statistics; Theory and Methods; Trajectories
• ISSN: 0162-1459; 1537-274X
• DOI: 10.1198/016214505000000501

Growth mixture modeling has become a prominent tool for studying the heterogeneity of developmental trajectories within a population. In this article we develop graphical diagnostics to detect misspecification in growth mixture models regarding the number of growth classes, growth trajectory means, and covariance structures. For each model misspecification, we propose a different type of empirical Bayes residual to quantify the departure. Our procedure begins by imputing multiple independent sets of growth classes for the sample. Then, from these so-called "pseudoclass" draws, we form diagnostic plots to examine the averaged empirical distributions of residuals in each such class. Our proposals draw on the property that each single set of pseudoclass adjusted residuals is asymptotically normal with known mean and (co)variance when the underlying model is correct. These methods are justified in simulation studies involving two classes of linear growth curves that also differ by their covariance structures. These are then applied to longitudinal data from a randomized field trial that tests whether children's trajectories of aggressive behavior could be modified during elementary and middle school. Our diagnostics lead to a solution involving a mixture of three growth classes. When comparing the diagnostics obtained from multiple pseudoclasses with those from multiple imputations, we show the computational advantage of the former and obtain a criterion for determining the minimum number of pseudoclass draws.