Modeling the impact of obesity on the lifetime risk of chronic kidney disease in the United States using updated estimates of GFR progression from the CRIC study

As the prevalence of obesity continues to rise in the United States, it is important to understand its impact on the lifetime risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD). The CKD Health Policy Model was used to simulate the lifetime risk of CKD for those with and without obesity at baseline. Model structur...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2018-10, Vol.13 (10), p.e0205530-e0205530
Main Authors: Yarnoff, Benjamin O, Hoerger, Thomas J, Shrestha, Sundar S, Simpson, Siobhan K, Burrows, Nilka R, Anderson, Amanda H, Xie, Dawei, Chen, Hsiang-Yu, Pavkov, Meda E
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adult
Age Factors
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Analysis
Biology and Life Sciences
Body Mass Index
Body weight
Cardiovascular disease
Chronic illnesses
Chronic kidney failure
Computer Simulation
Cost analysis
Diabetes
Diabetes mellitus
Disease control
Disease prevention
Disease Progression
Epidemiology
Female
Glomerular Filtration Rate
Health aspects
Health policy
Health risks
Humans
Hypertension
Kidney diseases
Kidneys
Longitudinal Studies
Male
Medical research
Medicine and Health Sciences
Middle Aged
Models, Biological
Nutrition
Nutrition Surveys
Obesity
Obesity - epidemiology
Obesity - physiopathology
Overweight
Population studies
Renal insufficiency
Renal Insufficiency, Chronic - epidemiology
Renal Insufficiency, Chronic - physiopathology
Research and Analysis Methods
Risk
Risk Factors
Simulation
Statistical analysis
Statistical significance
Surveys
Citations: Items that cite this one
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Summary:As the prevalence of obesity continues to rise in the United States, it is important to understand its impact on the lifetime risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD). The CKD Health Policy Model was used to simulate the lifetime risk of CKD for those with and without obesity at baseline. Model structure was updated for glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline to incorporate new longitudinal data from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study. The updated model was populated with a nationally representative cohort from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Lifetime risk of CKD, highest stage and any stage. Simulation model following up individuals from current age through death or age 90 years. Lifetime risk of any CKD stage was 32.5% (95% CI 28.6%-36.3%) for persons with normal weight, 37.6% (95% CI 33.5%-41.7%) for persons who were overweight, and 41.0% (95% CI 36.7%-45.3%) for persons with obesity at baseline. The difference between persons with normal weight and persons with obesity at baseline was statistically significant (p
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0205530