How ecological feedbacks between human population and land cover influence sustainability

• Published in: PLoS computational biology 2018-08, Vol.14 (8), p.e1006389-e1006389
• Main Authors: Henderson, Kirsten, Loreau, Michel
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agricultural ecosystems; Agricultural land; Agricultural resources; Agriculture; Biodiversity; Biodiversity and Ecology; Biology and Life Sciences; Civilization; Consumption; Demographics; Demography; Earth Sciences; Ecological effects; Ecology and Environmental Sciences; Ecosystem services; Environmental aspects; Environmental changes; Environmental economics; Environmental impact; Environmental Sciences; Famine; Human populations; Intensive farming; Land cover; Land use; Methods; Natural resources; Nutrient cycles; Pest control; Plant reproduction; Pollination; Population; Population decline; Population dynamics; Population growth; Productivity; Purification; Renewable resources; Resource availability; Restoration; Social Sciences; Society; Sustainability; Sustainable development; Terrestrial environments; Water purification; Water treatment
• ISSN: 1553-7358; 1553-734X; 1553-7358
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006389

It is estimated that the Earth's biocapacity is unable to meet current demands, which begs the question: is a sustainable future possible for both humans and the environment? The UN projects a human population of approximately 11 billion by the end of the 21st century; requiring additional agricultural land, greater demands for natural resources, and technological advancements. We model human population over the next century, emphasizing feedbacks between natural and agricultural resource availability and human demography. We argue that an intensive agriculture approach to feeding the growing population is ill-conceived, without considering biodiversity and ecosystem services (e.g., nutrient cycling, pollination, water purification, pest control). The productivity of agricultural land and human population dynamics are dependent on the area of natural land-generally, tipping at 5 billion ha of natural land (approximately 40% of the Earth's terrestrial area). Furthermore, our model shows that an imprudent proactive approach (i.e., focusing on agriculture and ignoring ecosystem services) limits the success of reactive measures (i.e., restoration) in the future, while the inability to react to changes and recover natural systems leads to human population decline.