Modeling and prediction of the 2019 coronavirus disease spreading in China incorporating human migration data

This study integrates the daily intercity migration data with the classic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model to construct a new model suitable for describing the dynamics of epidemic spreading of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. Daily intercity migration data for 367 citi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2020-10, Vol.15 (10), p.e0241171-e0241171
Main Authors: Zhan, Choujun, Tse, Chi K, Fu, Yuxia, Lai, Zhikang, Zhang, Haijun
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Betacoronavirus
Big Data
Cell Phone
China - epidemiology
Cities
Computer engineering
Computer science
Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology
Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control
Coronavirus Infections - transmission
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Disease transmission
Earth Sciences
Epidemics
Humans
Infections
Medicine and Health Sciences
Migration
Mobile Applications
Models, Theoretical
Optimization
Pandemics - prevention & control
People and Places
Physical Sciences
Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology
Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control
Pneumonia, Viral - transmission
SARS-CoV-2
Social Sciences
Spreading
Time Factors
Transportation
Travel
Travel-Related Illness
Viral diseases
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Summary:This study integrates the daily intercity migration data with the classic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model to construct a new model suitable for describing the dynamics of epidemic spreading of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. Daily intercity migration data for 367 cities in China were collected from Baidu Migration, a mobile-app based human migration tracking data system. Early outbreak data of infected, recovered and death cases from official source (from January 24 to February 16, 2020) were used for model fitting. The set of model parameters obtained from best data fitting using a constrained nonlinear optimisation procedure was used for estimation of the dynamics of epidemic spreading in the following months. The work was completed on February 19, 2020. Our results showed that the number of infections in most cities in China would peak between mid February to early March 2020, with about 0.8%, less than 0.1% and less than 0.01% of the population eventually infected in Wuhan, Hubei Province and the rest of China, respectively. Moreover, for most cities outside and within Hubei Province (except Wuhan), the total number of infected individuals is expected to be less than 300 and 4000, respectively.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0241171