Could business cycles and economic crises smooth out at a reasonable cost?: Empirical findings from the US economy

• Published in: EuroMed journal of business 2010-05, Vol.5 (1), p.57
• Main Authors: Vergos, Konstantinos P, Mylonakis, John, Christopoulos, Apostolos G
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Business cycles; Consumption; Economic activity; Economic development; Economic forecasts; Economic growth; Economic models; Economic statistics; Employment; Equilibrium; Expected values; Expenditures; Fiscal policy; GDP; Government spending; Gross Domestic Product; Hypothesis testing; Inflation rates; Interest rates; Macroeconomics; Propensity to consume; Regression analysis; Research methodology; Studies; Tax increases
• ISSN: 1450-2194; 1758-888X
• DOI: 10.1108/14502191011043152

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of macroeconomic factors in income growth, as defined by IS-LM, and the relation between these factors and economic cycles. More precisely, the paper aims to investigate how the demand and supply factors affect income growth, while the relation between these factors and economic cycles is also examined. Design/methodology/approach - The sample under examination is the annual US data for 1928-2007, using the official data as released in the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, while for the crises the used data have been provided by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Graduate Center of the City University of New York. The Business Cycles were examined, using the methodology developed by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Findings - The research findings imply that government consumption expenditure growth is the most important factor that affects Gross Domestic Product growth positively. A change of 10 percent in Government consumption leads to 1.65 percent Gross Domestic Product growth. Also, the duration of crises is affected by lowering interest rates, while being also affected by government and personal consumption. Overall, the empirical findings of the study indicate that the role of private investments for Gross Domestic Product growth may be overrated among policy makers, given the low contribution of this factor to Gross Domestic Product growth. Research limitations/implications - The model used has some limitations. First, it does not examine the effect of a policy over Gross Domestic Product growth in longer time-spans. Second, it does not investigate factor inter-reactions. It could also be argued that other factors that would stimulate growth or affect crisis are not accounted for, such as wars, tax policies, international trade and population growth. Finally, the model investigates only the US economy; therefore, it could be argued that the findings may not coincide with findings from other economies. Originality/value - The paper contributes to the economics literature by adding a further insight into the possible mix of policy that could be followed by regulatory authorities and governments for both the boost of economy and the finalization of economic crises.