Mixed-frequency Cointegrating Regressions with Parsimonious Distributed Lag Structures

Parsimoniously specified distributed lag models have enjoyed a resurgence under the MIDAS moniker (Mixed Data Sampling) as a feasible way to model time series observed at very different sampling frequencies. I introduce cointegrating mixed data sampling regressions. I derive asymptotic limits under...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of financial econometrics 2014-07, Vol.12 (3), p.584-614
Main Author: Miller, J. I.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Asymptotic methods
Cointegration analysis
Economic activity
Economic models
Regression analysis
Studies
Time series
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Summary:Parsimoniously specified distributed lag models have enjoyed a resurgence under the MIDAS moniker (Mixed Data Sampling) as a feasible way to model time series observed at very different sampling frequencies. I introduce cointegrating mixed data sampling regressions. I derive asymptotic limits under substantially more general conditions than the extant theoretical literature allows. In addition to the possibility of cointegrated series, I allow for regressors and an error term with general correlation patterns, both serially and mutually. The nonlinear least squares estimator still obtains consistency to the minimum mean-squared forecast error parameter vector, and the asymptotic distribution of the coefficient vector is Gaussian with a possibly singular variance. I propose a novel test of a MIDAS null against a more general and possibly infeasible alternative mixed-frequency specification. An empirical application to nowcasting global real economic activity using monthly financial covariates illustrates the utility of the approach.
ISSN:1479-8409
1479-8417
DOI:10.1093/jjfinec/nbt010