Identification of development areas in a warming Arctic with respect to natural resources, transportation, protected areas, and geography

• Published in: Futures : the journal of policy, planning and futures studies planning and futures studies, 2017-01, Vol.85, p.14-29
• Main Authors: Eliasson, Kjartan, Ulfarsson, Gudmundur F., Valsson, Trausti, Gardarsson, Sigurdur M.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Geography; Global warming; High north; Long-range planning; Natural resources; Overlay maps; Petroleum industry; Policy making; Shipping routes; Studies
• ISSN: 0016-3287; 1873-6378
• DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2016.11.005

•Overlay maps show intersection of oil/gas, fishing, shipping and mining in the Arctic.•The Barents Sea most likely for increased economic utilization but is close to protected areas.•Secondary growth areas are the Beaufort Sea and Kara Sea but with significant limiting factors.•In the North Atlantic: Coasts of Greenland have the most conflicting usage potential and sensitivity.•An ice free Arctic Ocean lends increased geostrategic importance to the Arctic countries. Global warming will cause changes in the Arctic and the sub-Arctic in the 21st century. This paper presents maps of natural resources, transportation, protected areas, and geography in the Arctic. The overlay method is used to study where resources and limiting factors overlap to identify development areas that might open up with a warming climate. The novelty of this study lies in the new overlay maps and their interpretation in combination with megapatterns in spatial trends to reveal areas that are likely to develop in the Arctic in the future (around the year 2100) given a warming climate. The analysis is intended to help strategic long-range planning and policy making on large geographic scales in order to prepare for growing development pressures. The results show the Barents Sea region has the most growth potential, followed by the Beaufort Sea and Kara Sea. The Barents Sea draws activities due to abundant natural resources, location in relation to the Northern Sea Route, geographical conditions, and existing infrastructure. The other areas have more limiting factors. Within the North Atlantic, the east and west Coasts of Greenland have the most opportunities, especially in terms of oil/gas extraction and future fishing grounds, but they are vulnerable to ecological change and pollution.