TWIN DEFICITS THREAT IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

The aim of the contribution was to identify presence and contagion threat of twin deficits, i.e. simultaneous budget and current account deficit in the EU countries. Using correlations and Granger causality testing we recorded existence of twin deficits in most of EU countries. In several countries...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:E+M ekonomie a management 2017-01, Vol.20 (1), p.144
Main Authors: Sinicakova, Marianna, Sulikova, Veronika, Gavurova, Beata
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Budget deficits
Causality
Consumption
Economic development
Economic growth
Economic models
Foreign exchange rates
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
Hypotheses
Interest rates
Small & medium sized enterprises-SME
Variables
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Summary:The aim of the contribution was to identify presence and contagion threat of twin deficits, i.e. simultaneous budget and current account deficit in the EU countries. Using correlations and Granger causality testing we recorded existence of twin deficits in most of EU countries. In several countries we confirmed traditional causality that budget deficit implies current account deficit. In several other countries the opposite, known as current account targeting, was true. In two counties (Spain and Hungary) bi-causality was detected. We consider existence of bi-causality as the most complicated situation in practice. Then it is a real vicious cycle. Policy makers must target both imbalances at the same time, to solve this problem, which can be very difficult. Persistent macroeconomic problems in these two countries confirm our assumption. Our paper extends existing literature by determination of two thresholds for public debt-to-GDP which modify occurrence and risk of twin deficits in the EU countries. These break points were identified via threshold panel data model. Twin deficits problems are not probable for countries with public debt-to-GDP lower than 30.668%. However, risk of this phenomenon is much higher if public debt is from 30.688% to 98.126%. Countries with public debt over 98.126% suffer from high and persistent twin imbalances. Therefore we suggest reconsideration of Maastricht criterion on public debt and its reduction to 30%. Finally we observe contagion effect of twin deficits throughout EU countries regardless their economic performance or the euro area membership which is indirectly triggered also in the case of non-euro area members.
ISSN:1212-3609
2336-5064
DOI:10.1524/tul001/2017-1-010