Evidence of temperature and precipitation change over the past 100 years in a high-resolution pollen record from the boreal forest of Central European Russia

Near-annual pollen records for the last 100 years were obtained from a 65-cm peat monolith from a raised peat bog in the Central Forest State Natural Biosphere Reserve (southern part of the Valdai Hills, European Russia) and compared with the available long-term meteorological observations. An age–d...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Holocene (Sevenoaks) 2017-05, Vol.27 (5), p.740-751
Main Authors: Olchev, Alexander, Novenko, Elena, Popov, Viktor, Pampura, Tatiana, Meili, Markus
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Age
Air temperature
Biosphere
Bogs
Boreal forests
Causality
Climate change
Correlation
Correlation analysis
Flowering
Forests
High resolution
Meteorological observations
Peat
Pollen
Precipitation
Shrubs
Soil
Soil water
Statistical analysis
Statistical significance
Temperature effects
Trees
Water availability
Water temperature
Winter
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Summary:Near-annual pollen records for the last 100 years were obtained from a 65-cm peat monolith from a raised peat bog in the Central Forest State Natural Biosphere Reserve (southern part of the Valdai Hills, European Russia) and compared with the available long-term meteorological observations. An age–depth model for the peat monolith was constructed by 210Pb and 137Cs dating. Cross-correlation and the Granger causality analysis indicated a broad range of statistically significant correlations between the pollen accumulation rate (PAR) of the main forest-forming trees and shrubs (Picea, Pinus, Betula, Tilia, Quercus, Ulmus, Alnus, and Corylus) and the air temperature and precipitation during the previous 3 years. Results showed that high air temperatures during the growing season (May–September) in the year prior to the flowering led to an increase in pollen productivity of the main tree species. The statistically significant correlation between the PAR of trees and shrubs and winter precipitation of the current and previous years could reflect the influence of winter precipitation on soil water availability and as a result on tree growth and functioning in the spring.
ISSN:0959-6836
1477-0911
DOI:10.1177/0959683616670472