Effects of climate oscillations on wildland fire potential in the continental United States

The effects of climate oscillations on spatial and temporal variations in wildland fire potential in the continental U.S. are examined from 1979 to 2015 using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs). The CSEOF analysis isolates effects associated with the modulated annual cycle and t...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical research letters 2017-07, Vol.44 (13), p.7002-7010
Main Authors: Mason, Shelby A., Hamlington, Peter E., Hamlington, Benjamin D., Matt Jolly, W., Hoffman, Chad M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Annual variations
Atmospheric circulation
Climate
Climate effects
climate oscillations
El Nino
El Nino phenomena
El Nino-Southern Oscillation event
El Niño
Empirical analysis
Empirical orthogonal functions
Fires
Humidity
La Nina
Orthogonal functions
Oscillations
Relative humidity
Resource allocation
Risk allocation
Risk assessment
Southern Oscillation
Summer
Temporal variations
Wildfires
wildland fires
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Summary:The effects of climate oscillations on spatial and temporal variations in wildland fire potential in the continental U.S. are examined from 1979 to 2015 using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs). The CSEOF analysis isolates effects associated with the modulated annual cycle and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results show that, in early summer, wildland fire potential is reduced in the southwest during El Niño but is increased in the northwest, with opposite trends for La Niña. In late summer, El Niño is associated with increased wildland fire potential in the southwest. Relative to the mean, the largest impacts of ENSO are observed in the northwest and southeast. Climate impacts on fire potential due to ENSO are found to be most closely associated with variations in relative humidity. The connections established here between fire potential and climate oscillations could result in improved wildland fire risk assessment and resource allocation. Key Points Cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions are used to analyze the effects of climate oscillations on wildland fire potential The modulated annual cycle is primarily associated with variations in wildland fire potential in the western U.S. and Florida Effects of El Niño and La Niña are widespread, with the largest changes relative to the mean occurring in the northwest and southeast
ISSN:0094-8276
1944-8007
DOI:10.1002/2017GL074111