Sea level projections for the Australian region in the 21st century

Sea level rise exhibits significant regional differences. Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, sea level projections have been produced for the Australian region by taking account of regional dynamic changes, ocean thermal expansion, mass loss of glaciers, changes i...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical research letters 2017-08, Vol.44 (16), p.8481-8491
Main Authors: Zhang, Xuebin, Church, John A., Monselesan, Didier, McInnes, Kathleen L.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adaptation
Antarctic ice
Australia
Boundary currents
Circulation
Climate
Climate models
Coastal dynamics
Coasts
dynamic downscaling
Future climates
Glaciation
Glaciers
High resolution
High sea levels
High seas
Ice sheets
Intercomparison
Levels
Ocean circulation
ocean gyre circulation
Ocean models
Oceans
Resolution
Sea level
sea level projection
Sea level rise
Thermal expansion
Water storage
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Summary:Sea level rise exhibits significant regional differences. Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, sea level projections have been produced for the Australian region by taking account of regional dynamic changes, ocean thermal expansion, mass loss of glaciers, changes in Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and land water storage, and glacial isostatic adjustment. However, these regional projections have a coarse resolution (~100 km), while coastal adaptation planners demand finer scale information at the coast. To address this need, a 1/10° near‐global ocean model driven by ensemble average forcings from 17 CMIP5 models is used to downscale future climate. We produce high‐resolution sea level projections by combining downscaled dynamic sea level with other contributions. Off the southeast coast, dynamic downscaling provides better representation of high sea level projections associated with gyre circulation and boundary current changes. The high‐resolution sea level projection should be a valuable product for detailed coastal adaptation planning. Key Points The distribution of future sea level rise around Australia results from combination of ocean dynamics, loss of land ice, and GIA Dynamic sea level is the leading process to induce regional variations, under moderate and strong emission scenarios Downscaling with a 1/10° OGCM produces better dynamic sea level responses from climate models, linked to ocean gyre circulation
ISSN:0094-8276
1944-8007
DOI:10.1002/2017GL074176