Set for Instability: Prospects for Conflict and Cooperation between Israel and Jordan

This article argues that since 1949, the relationship between Israel and Jordan has depended primarily on their interactions with a Third Actor--identified as Egypt from 1949 to the mid-1970s, and as the Palestinians thereafter. Conflict between Israel and Jordan always follows conflict one or both...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Studies in conflict and terrorism 2002-11, Vol.25 (6), p.383-401
Main Authors: Reuveny, Rafael, Powers, John R.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Arab-Israeli conflict
Boundary disputes
Conflict
Cooperation
Egypt
Evaluation
History
Influence
Interethnic conflict
Interethnic relations
International cooperation
International relations
Israel
Jordan
Palestinian Authority
Palestinian people
Peace
Politics and government
Territoriality
Third-party intervention
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Summary:This article argues that since 1949, the relationship between Israel and Jordan has depended primarily on their interactions with a Third Actor--identified as Egypt from 1949 to the mid-1970s, and as the Palestinians thereafter. Conflict between Israel and Jordan always follows conflict one or both nations have with the Third Actor. The analysis suggests a cyclical and hierarchical allegiance condition, in which Jordan switches from an alliance with Israel to an alliance with the Third Actor. Jordan cooperates with Israel--even if it itself engages in conflict with the Third Actor--until Israel engages in conflict with the Third Actor, at which point Jordan realigns with the Third Actor against Israel. This analysis suggests that to avoid an Israeli-Jordanian conflict, Israel must reach an agreement with the Palestinians regarding the existence and borders of a Palestinian state. Such an agreement, however, may not guarantee permanent peace between Israel and Jordan, as regional tensions fueled by controversy regarding the existence and legitimacy of the Jordanian Hashemite monarchy may rise again. Thus, even if a Palestinian state were established, the current peace between Israel and Jordan might be transitory.
ISSN:1057-610X
1521-0731
DOI:10.1080/10576100290101268