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Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California
Mediterranean climate regimes are particularly susceptible to rapid shifts between drought and flood—of which, California’s rapid transition from record multi-year dryness between 2012 and 2016 to extreme wetness during the 2016–2017 winter provides a dramatic example. Projected future changes in su...
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Published in: | Nature climate change 2018-05, Vol.8 (5), p.427-433 |
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creator | Swain, Daniel L. Langenbrunner, Baird Neelin, J. David Hall, Alex |
description | Mediterranean climate regimes are particularly susceptible to rapid shifts between drought and flood—of which, California’s rapid transition from record multi-year dryness between 2012 and 2016 to extreme wetness during the 2016–2017 winter provides a dramatic example. Projected future changes in such dry-to-wet events, however, remain inadequately quantified, which we investigate here using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble of climate model simulations. Anthropogenic forcing is found to yield large twenty-first-century increases in the frequency of wet extremes, including a more than threefold increase in sub-seasonal events comparable to California’s ‘Great Flood of 1862’. Smaller but statistically robust increases in dry extremes are also apparent. As a consequence, a 25% to 100% increase in extreme dry-to-wet precipitation events is projected, despite only modest changes in mean precipitation. Such hydrological cycle intensification would seriously challenge California’s existing water storage, conveyance and flood control infrastructure.
California recently experienced a rapid shift from multi-year drought to abundant rainfall. A large ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the frequency of extreme wet-to-dry precipitation events will increase by 25% to 100% across California due to anthropogenic forcing. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1038/s41558-018-0140-y |
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California recently experienced a rapid shift from multi-year drought to abundant rainfall. A large ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the frequency of extreme wet-to-dry precipitation events will increase by 25% to 100% across California due to anthropogenic forcing.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1758-678X</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1758-6798</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0140-y</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>London: Nature Publishing Group UK</publisher><subject>704/106/35 ; 704/106/694 ; 704/106/694/2786 ; 704/242 ; 706/2805 ; Anthropogenic factors ; Climate ; Climate Change ; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts ; Climate models ; Computer simulation ; Drought ; Earth ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Environment ; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice ; Flood control ; Floods ; Hydrologic cycle ; Hydrological cycle ; Hydrology ; Mean precipitation ; Mediterranean climate ; Moisture content ; Precipitation ; Volatility ; Water storage</subject><ispartof>Nature climate change, 2018-05, Vol.8 (5), p.427-433</ispartof><rights>The Author(s) 2018</rights><rights>Copyright Nature Publishing Group May 2018</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c382t-627f273d9cd2da997caf70f0680c98fbe1811d51da7d5a15a0bed7bc9cd7d033</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c382t-627f273d9cd2da997caf70f0680c98fbe1811d51da7d5a15a0bed7bc9cd7d033</cites><orcidid>0000-0003-4276-3092</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,27924,27925</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Swain, Daniel L.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Langenbrunner, Baird</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Neelin, J. David</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hall, Alex</creatorcontrib><title>Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California</title><title>Nature climate change</title><addtitle>Nature Clim Change</addtitle><description>Mediterranean climate regimes are particularly susceptible to rapid shifts between drought and flood—of which, California’s rapid transition from record multi-year dryness between 2012 and 2016 to extreme wetness during the 2016–2017 winter provides a dramatic example. Projected future changes in such dry-to-wet events, however, remain inadequately quantified, which we investigate here using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble of climate model simulations. Anthropogenic forcing is found to yield large twenty-first-century increases in the frequency of wet extremes, including a more than threefold increase in sub-seasonal events comparable to California’s ‘Great Flood of 1862’. Smaller but statistically robust increases in dry extremes are also apparent. As a consequence, a 25% to 100% increase in extreme dry-to-wet precipitation events is projected, despite only modest changes in mean precipitation. Such hydrological cycle intensification would seriously challenge California’s existing water storage, conveyance and flood control infrastructure.
California recently experienced a rapid shift from multi-year drought to abundant rainfall. A large ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the frequency of extreme wet-to-dry precipitation events will increase by 25% to 100% across California due to anthropogenic forcing.</description><subject>704/106/35</subject><subject>704/106/694</subject><subject>704/106/694/2786</subject><subject>704/242</subject><subject>706/2805</subject><subject>Anthropogenic factors</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climate Change</subject><subject>Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>Computer simulation</subject><subject>Drought</subject><subject>Earth</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Environment</subject><subject>Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice</subject><subject>Flood control</subject><subject>Floods</subject><subject>Hydrologic cycle</subject><subject>Hydrological cycle</subject><subject>Hydrology</subject><subject>Mean precipitation</subject><subject>Mediterranean climate</subject><subject>Moisture content</subject><subject>Precipitation</subject><subject>Volatility</subject><subject>Water storage</subject><issn>1758-678X</issn><issn>1758-6798</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2018</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp1kE9LxDAQxYMouKz7AbwVPEczzbZJj1JcXVjwsgdvIZs_S5aa1iSr9NubUtGTA8M8hvdm4IfQLZB7IJQ_xDVUFccEpl4TPF6gBbC8qVnDL381f7tGqxhPJBeDmtbNAm22XgUjo_PHYghGucElmVzvi8--y6JzaSycL9KX8WnE1oWYsMr6HMailZ2zffBO3qArK7toVj9zifabp337gnevz9v2cYcV5WXCdclsyahulC61bBqmpGXEkpoT1XB7MMABdAVaMl1JqCQ5GM0OKvuZJpQu0d18dgj9x9nEJE79Ofj8UZSEAiMVAM8umF0q9DEGY8UQ3LsMowAiJmBiBiYyMDEBE2POlHMmZq8_mvB3-f_QN9Q9b_o</recordid><startdate>20180501</startdate><enddate>20180501</enddate><creator>Swain, Daniel L.</creator><creator>Langenbrunner, Baird</creator><creator>Neelin, J. 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David</au><au>Hall, Alex</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California</atitle><jtitle>Nature climate change</jtitle><stitle>Nature Clim Change</stitle><date>2018-05-01</date><risdate>2018</risdate><volume>8</volume><issue>5</issue><spage>427</spage><epage>433</epage><pages>427-433</pages><issn>1758-678X</issn><eissn>1758-6798</eissn><abstract>Mediterranean climate regimes are particularly susceptible to rapid shifts between drought and flood—of which, California’s rapid transition from record multi-year dryness between 2012 and 2016 to extreme wetness during the 2016–2017 winter provides a dramatic example. Projected future changes in such dry-to-wet events, however, remain inadequately quantified, which we investigate here using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble of climate model simulations. Anthropogenic forcing is found to yield large twenty-first-century increases in the frequency of wet extremes, including a more than threefold increase in sub-seasonal events comparable to California’s ‘Great Flood of 1862’. Smaller but statistically robust increases in dry extremes are also apparent. As a consequence, a 25% to 100% increase in extreme dry-to-wet precipitation events is projected, despite only modest changes in mean precipitation. Such hydrological cycle intensification would seriously challenge California’s existing water storage, conveyance and flood control infrastructure.
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subjects | 704/106/35 704/106/694 704/106/694/2786 704/242 706/2805 Anthropogenic factors Climate Climate Change Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts Climate models Computer simulation Drought Earth Earth and Environmental Science Environment Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice Flood control Floods Hydrologic cycle Hydrological cycle Hydrology Mean precipitation Mediterranean climate Moisture content Precipitation Volatility Water storage |
title | Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California |
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