Bayesian multinomial latent variable modeling for fraud and abuse detection in health insurance

• Published in: Insurance, mathematics & economics mathematics & economics, 2016-11, Vol.71, p.244-252
• Main Authors: Bayerstadler, Andreas, van Dijk, Linda, Winter, Fabian
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Bayes; Bayesian analysis; Claims; Computer simulation; Deviation; Fraud; Fraud and abuse detection; Health care; Health insurance; Insurance; Insurance fraud; Latent variable; Markov analysis; Markov chains; Monte Carlo simulation; Parameter estimation; Prediction models; Predictive model; Shrinkage
• ISSN: 0167-6687; 1873-5959
• DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2016.09.013

Healthcare fraud and abuse are a serious challenge to healthcare payers and to the entire society. This article presents a predictive model for fraud and abuse detection in health insurance based on a training dataset of manually reviewed claims. The goal of the analysis is to predict different fraud and abuse probabilities for new invoices. The prediction is based on a wide framework of fraud and abuse reports which examine the behavior of medical providers and insured members by measuring systematic deviation from usual patterns in medical claims data. We show that models which directly use the results of the reports as model covariates do not exploit the full potential in terms of predictive quality. Instead, we propose a multinomial Bayesian latent variable model which summarizes behavioral patterns in latent variables, and predicts different fraud and abuse probabilities. The estimation of model parameters is based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm using Bayesian shrinkage techniques. The presented approach improves the identification of fraudulent and abusive claims compared to different benchmark approaches.