Trimmed Conformal Prediction for High-Dimensional Models

In regression, conformal prediction is a general methodology to construct prediction intervals in a distribution-free manner. Although conformal prediction guarantees strong statistical property for predictive inference, its inherent computational challenge has attracted the attention of researchers...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:arXiv.org 2016-11
Main Authors: Chen, Wenyu, Wang, Zhaokai, Ha, Wooseok, Rina Foygel Barber
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Computation
Predictions
Regression
Statistical analysis
Statistical inference
Trimming
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Summary:In regression, conformal prediction is a general methodology to construct prediction intervals in a distribution-free manner. Although conformal prediction guarantees strong statistical property for predictive inference, its inherent computational challenge has attracted the attention of researchers in the community. In this paper, we propose a new framework, called Trimmed Conformal Prediction (TCP), based on two stage procedure, a trimming step and a prediction step. The idea is to use a preliminary trimming step to substantially reduce the range of possible values for the prediction interval, and then applying conformal prediction becomes far more efficient. As is the case of conformal prediction, TCP can be applied to any regression method, and further offers both statistical accuracy and computational gains. For a specific example, we also show how TCP can be implemented in the sparse regression setting. The experiments on both synthetic and real data validate the empirical performance of TCP.
ISSN:2331-8422