Exploring the Economic Impact of Changing Climate Conditions and Trade Policies on Agricultural Trade: A CGE Analysis

Agricultural trade will play a significant role in the future contribution of the agriculture sector to local and global economic outcomes, including economic growth, rural employment, and food prices. Trade outcomes will be affected by changes in production that result from productivity effects ass...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Economic review (Kansas City) 2018-01, p.5-26
Main Authors: Bekkers, Eddy, Jackson, Lee Ann
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agricultural production
Agriculture
Biodiesel fuels
Biofuels
Climate change
Consumption
Cost control
Crops
Economic conditions
Economic growth
Economic impact
Economic models
Food prices
Food supply
Global economy
International trade
Land use
Livestock
Natural resources
Prices
Productivity
Simulation
Tariffs
Trade
Trade policy
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Summary:Agricultural trade will play a significant role in the future contribution of the agriculture sector to local and global economic outcomes, including economic growth, rural employment, and food prices. Trade outcomes will be affected by changes in production that result from productivity effects associated with climate change. In addition, government intervention in markets may also have significant effects, both on production incentives for farmers and, ultimately, on the competitive conditions in international markets. This paper explores the ways in which changing global agricultural productivity and policy patterns affect economic outcomes.In the face of expected increased temperature stresses, variable water availability, limits to arable land and continued population growth, debates about how to ensure global food supply will meet future demand are intensifying. In the future, changing climate conditions may alter the relative productivity of regional agricultural production and, as a result, affect the trading patterns. Trade can play an important role in enabling products to move to areas of shortage. At the same time, the trading system is also affected by direct and indirect policy interventions. Policy decisions related to public support for agriculture and trade policies will influence outcomes by affecting the decisions of farmers, consumers, and traders and by altering the relative competitiveness of products on the marketplace.
ISSN:0161-2387
2163-422X