Meet in the Middle: Terrorism and Centrist Party Vote Shares in Legislative Elections

• Published in: Global policy 2019-02, Vol.10 (1), p.60-74
• Main Authors: Hunter, Lance Y., Robbins, Joseph W., Ginn, Martha H., Hutton, Aaron
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Anxiety; Case studies; Centrism; Election results; Elections; Fear & phobias; Political behavior; Political campaigns; Political parties; Politics; Researchers; Terrorism; Voters
• ISSN: 1758-5880; 1758-5899
• DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.12637

Scholars have found that terrorism can influence political behavior in democracies by affecting citizens’ emotions such as anxiety and fear. However, researchers have yet to examine how terrorism affects vote choice cross‐nationally. The few studies that have investigated terrorism's effect on vote choice have only examined single states through case study analysis. While informative, researchers lack an understanding regarding how terrorism influences vote choice cross‐nationally based on the nature of terrorist attacks and the ideology of political parties. Thus, using a unique dataset that incorporates political party ideology, this study examines the effect the number and severity of terrorist attacks have on vote choice in legislative elections in 56 democracies from multiple regions and levels of development from 1975 to 2014. Preliminary results indicate that terrorist attacks are critical events that significantly affect vote choice in the democratic states included in this analysis. Our analysis indicates that center parties are more likely to increase their vote shares following terrorist attacks compared with right and leftist parties. In addition, contrary to the assumption that terrorism benefits rightist parties, rightist parties appear to suffer the most electorally following both international and domestic attacks whereas leftist parties lose support following domestic attacks.