Prediction uncertainty in an ecological model of the oosterschelde estuary

• Published in: Journal of forecasting 1991-01, Vol.10 (1-2), p.191-209
• Main Authors: Klepper, O., Scholten, H., Van Kamer, J. P. G. De
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Calibration; Calibration Ecological model; Ecosystems; Environmental impact; Error analysis; Estuaries; Mathematical models; Monte Carlo analysis; Monte Carlo simulation; Mussel culture; Predictions; Shellfish; Uncertainty; Water resources
• ISSN: 0277-6693; 1099-131X
• DOI: 10.1002/for.3980100111

A storm surge barrier was constructed in 1987 in the Oosterschelde estuary in the south‐western delta of Holland to provide protection from flooding, while largely maintaining the tidal characteristics of the estuary. Despite efforts to minimize the hydraulic changes resulting from the barrage, it was expected that exchange with the North Sea, suspended sediment concentration and nutrient loads would decrease considerably. A model of the nutrients, algae and bottom organisms (mainly cockles and mussels) was developed to predict possible changes in the availability of food for these organisms. Although the model is based on standard constructs of ecology and hydraulics, many of its parameters are known with but low accuracy, being expressed as a range of possible values only. Running the model with all possible values of the parameters gives rise to a fairly wide range of model output responses. The calibration procedure used herein does not seek a single optimal value for the parameters but a decrease in the parameter range and thus a reduction in model prediction uncertainty. The field data available for calibration of the model are weighted according to their relationship with the model's objective, i.e. to predict food availability for shellfish. Despite the considerable physical changes resulting from the barrier food availability for shellfish is predicted to remain largely unchanged, due to the compensating effects of several other accompanying changes. There appears to be room for the extension of mussel culture, but at an increased risk of adverse conditions arising.