Effects of conflict on agriculture: Evidence from the Boko Haram insurgency

• Published in: World development 2019-05, Vol.117, p.184-195
• Main Authors: Adelaja, Adesoji, George, Justin
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Ability; Agricultural development; Agriculture; Boko Haram; Case studies; Cassava; Conflict; Crops; Development; Economic conditions; Environmental aspects; Environmental factors; Human capital; Indirect effects; Infrastructure; Insurgency; Labor; Land use; Nigeria; Panel data; Premiums; Prices; Pricing; Productivity; Rebellions; Sorghum; Terrorism; Wages & salaries; Working hours
• ISSN: 0305-750X; 1873-5991
• DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.01.010

•Investigates the effects of the Boko Haram conflict on agriculture.•Conflict is found to reduce aggregate output of farm households, but not productivity.•Output reduction effects of conflict on sorghum, cassava, soya and yam are confirmed.•Conflict negatively impacts on hired labor, but has no effect on family labor. We investigate the effects of conflict on agriculture using the Boko Haram insurgency as a case study. We identify the output, input, infrastructure and human capital effects as direct effects and the loss of talent and other environmental factors as indirect effects. Identified market effects include effects on product and input prices, and increased risk premiums. By combining a nationally representative panel dataset on Nigerian agriculture with armed conflict data, we find that the increased intensity of Boko Haram attacks significantly reduces total output and productivity, but not land use, and reduces the outputs of specific staple crops such as sorghum, cassava, soya and yam. Conflict is also found to reduce the hours of hired labor for men and women, but does not affect the use of family labor. Agricultural wages are, however, significantly affected. Because it reveals if, why and how conflict affects agriculture, this study has important implications for post-crisis recovery and agricultural development.