Coherence, Calibration, and Expertise in Judgmental Probability Forecasting

This study investigates the relationship between judgmental probability forecasting performance, self-rated expertise, and degree of coherence with the probability laws. Self-rated expertise was found to be a good predictor of subsequent performance whereas measures of individual coherence were less...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Organizational behavior and human decision processes 1994-01, Vol.57 (1), p.1-25
Main Authors: Wright, George, Rowe, Gene, Bolger, Fergus, Gammack, John
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Biological and medical sciences
Cognition. Intelligence
Decision making
Decision making. Choice
Forecasting techniques
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Probability
Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry
Psychology. Psychophysiology
Statistical analysis
Studies
Citations: Items that cite this one
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Summary:This study investigates the relationship between judgmental probability forecasting performance, self-rated expertise, and degree of coherence with the probability laws. Self-rated expertise was found to be a good predictor of subsequent performance whereas measures of individual coherence were less predictive. However, recompositions of individual subjects′ marginal and conditional assessments into intersections, disjunctions, and unions proved a useful mechanical procedure since those recomposed assessments showed improved performance relative to their holistically assessed counterparts. Evidence of consistent individual differences in forecasting ability was found across item sets. These findings are discussed in relation to the elicitation of subjective probability judgments for input into decision analysis.
ISSN:0749-5978
1095-9920
DOI:10.1006/obhd.1994.1001