TOBACCO CROP SUBSTITUTION IS NOT ENOUGH/LI AND TANG RESPOND

• Published in: American journal of public health (1971) 2019-07, Vol.109 (7), p.E13-E14
• Main Authors: Li, Wei, Li, Virginia C, Tang, Songyuan
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Advocacy; Agricultural economics; Agriculture; Alliances; Central government; Cigarettes; Conflicts of interest; Crops; Economic development; Editors; Farmers; Health care policy; Hurricanes; Inventory; Leaves; Local government; Management; Minors; Monopolies; Pilot projects; Prevention; Production; Public health; Quotas; Science; Smoking; Subsidies; Substitutes; Tobacco; Tobacco industry
• ISSN: 0090-0036
• DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2019.305119

I had a chance to read Li and Tang's recent editorial, "China's New Road for Tobacco Control: Tobacco Crop Substitution."1 Li and Tang claim that tobacco crop substitution has yet to be proven as an effective strategy and that tobacco crop substitution's time has come. I do not deny that through tobacco crop substitution, farmers may receive a higher income and that phasing out tobacco crops to expand food crops is a win-win strategy. However, I believe that the effect of tobacco crop substitution is overestimated when generalizing to more places in China.First, no evidence shows that tobacco crop substitution reduces the tobacco supply for market. In general, there is a glut of tobacco leaves on the market. Li and Tang depicted a plausible scenario that by reducing tobacco acreage nationwide, the supply of tobacco also would decrease. Although cigarette sales declined by 5.6% from 2015 to 2016, they increased by 2.4% from 2016 to 2017.2 In addition, the amount of national business inventories continued to increase. By the end of 2016, the national business inventories reached 687 million cases of tobacco leaves, which was their peak historical value. Although tobacco crop substitution brought a higher income for farmers in the pilot project,1 it failed to conclude that tobacco crop substitution would decrease the supply of tobacco by reducing tobacco acreage.Second, with the development of production technology, new tobacco products have been created. These new products may themselves result in the reduction of tobacco acreage; the effect might be taken for cause. For example, the slim cigarette has resulted in a decline in need for tobacco leaves.3 A report showed that producing one case of slim cigarettes would save 40% of the acreage compared with the traditional cigarette.4 From a long-term perspective, the supply of tobacco needed would be reduced, unrelated to tobacco crop substitution policy.Third, we should never neglect the effect of the supportive policies from the local government. For example, in 2017, Linxiang District from Yunnan Province enacted 13 supportive policies to encourage farmers to plant tobacco crops, including the provision of less expensive fertilizers and seeds, natural hazards insurance, and planting grants.5 In 2006, the township government ofYuxi even provided 200 000 yuan as work funds and 300 000 yuan as an extra reward once farmers achieved the planting goal.6 Under the protection and benefits of such policies, it may be