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Simulated Effects of U.S. Withdrawal from Paris Agreement under Four Scenarios

Under the Paris Agreement framework, many developing countries call for low-carbon technology transfers from developed countries as a critical element in the global partnership for carbon emissions abatement. Such a partnership may be disrupted as the U.S. walks away from the agreement. Based on CIE...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:China economist (Beijing, China) China), 2019-09, Vol.14 (5), p.41-53
Main Authors: Gaoxiang, Gu, Zheng, Wang
Format: Article
Language:English
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Summary:Under the Paris Agreement framework, many developing countries call for low-carbon technology transfers from developed countries as a critical element in the global partnership for carbon emissions abatement. Such a partnership may be disrupted as the U.S. walks away from the agreement. Based on CIECIA-TD model, this paper examines effects of the U.S. exit on global low-carbon technology transfers under various scenarios and simulates the effects on low-carbon technology transfer, climate change, countries ' emissions abatement results, and economic development. Our findings suggest that low-carbon technology has significant emissions abatement and temperature rise mitigation effects. Low-carbon technology transfer among developed countries offers huge emissions abatement potentials, but patent protection system presents a significant barrier to further carbon emissions abatement. In this sense, the U.S. exit from the Paris Agreement will significantly impede developed countries ' carbon emissions abatement through technology transfer. With limited knowhow, R&D and learning capacity, developing countries will suffer more to cut carbon emissions under the chain effects of a more challenging technology sharing environment that may result from the U.S. exit from the Paris Agreement. As a gradualist emissions abatement approach, low-carbon technology transfer cannot reduce emissions substantially within a short time, but its climate welfare is conducive to global economic growth and of great significance to carbon governance.
ISSN:1673-8837
DOI:10.19602/j.chinaeconomist.2019.9.05