Caliban After CommunismThoughts on the Future of Cuba

• Published in: Cultural critique 2018-01, Vol.98, p.267
• Main Author: Beverley, John
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Authoritarianism; Communism; Disappointment; Hostility; Liberalization; Right wing politics; Trade
• ISSN: 0882-4371; 1460-2458

Like most Americans, I welcomed the Obama initiative to re-establish diplomatic relations and open up new commercial and travel ties with Cuba. I also welcomed the reform process in Cuba itself, though I thought it was moving too slowly. The new initiative by Trump, though it symbolically cancels the Obama accord, does not in fact change things all that much in the short run. The Cuban response to the Obama initiative was sluggish and cautious, and now with the hostility of the new administration will be probably even more sluggish and cautious. Why not? The Cubans know that while there is much to be gained from making a transition out of Communism, there is also much to be lost: consider the cases of Hungary and Poland, for example, now both moving towards right-wing authoritarianism. And in Cuba's case there will be no EU to bail it out. So it matters what form the transition in Cuba will take. But I think it would be fair to say that whatever happens in Cuba in the coming period—whether there will be a decisive shift towards economic liberalization, multiparty politics, and integration with the world market; or whether things will remain more or less the same (unsatisfactory but survivable); or whether there is a possible a "third" way, something like a Cuban version of the Chinese path—will be a disappointment.