A Bayesian‐Like Approach to Describe the Regional Variation of High‐Flash Rate Thunderstorms From Thermodynamic and Kinematic Environment Variables

A 16‐year Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission convective feature (CF) data set and ERA‐Interim reanalysis data are used to examine the nonlinear relationships between thermodynamic environments and the probability of high‐flash rate thunderstorms. First, Bayesian‐like probability functions are estab...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres 2019-12, Vol.124 (23), p.12507-12522
Main Authors: Liu, Nana, Liu, Chuntao, Tissot, Philippe E.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bayesian analysis
Bayesian like
Convection
Convective available potential energy
Data
Environmental factors
Geographical distribution
Geophysics
high‐flash rate
Mathematical analysis
Oceans
Potential energy
Probability theory
Rain
Rainfall
Regional variations
Thunderstorms
TRMM
Tropical climate
Tropical rainfall
Weather
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Summary:A 16‐year Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission convective feature (CF) data set and ERA‐Interim reanalysis data are used to examine the nonlinear relationships between thermodynamic environments and the probability of high‐flash rate thunderstorms. First, Bayesian‐like probability functions are established between preselected ERA‐Interim thermodynamic variables and the high‐flash rate CFs. Then, the global geographical distribution of high‐flash rate thunderstorms is validated by applying these functions to the reanalysis data. The results suggest that a sole environmental factor has limited skill to estimate the probability of these events. The combination of four variables, including Convective Available Potential Energy, convection inhibition, low‐level shear, and warm cloud depth, may be used to derive a geographical distribution of high‐flash rate events that is close to the observations. The strong land‐ocean contrast in the frequency of high‐flash rate thunderstorms and some hot spot regions can be closely reproduced based only on these four variables from the reanalysis data. This indicates that the land‐ocean contrast in the occurrence of high‐flash rate thunderstorms can be largely interpreted by the fundamental differences between the thermodynamic conditions over land and ocean. Key Points Sole environmental factor has limited skill to estimate the probability of high‐flash rate thunderstorms A combination of four variables can be used to derive a geographical distribution of high‐flash rate events by a Bayesian‐like approach The strong land‐ocean contrast in the frequency of high‐flash rate thunderstorms can be closely reproduced from the reanalysis data
ISSN:2169-897X
2169-8996
DOI:10.1029/2019JD031254