Demography and the Future of Democracy

The world is in the midst of a demographic recession. This counters what should be a long-term trend toward greater democracy. Recent research has shown that progress toward stable democracy is strongly associated with progress in the demographic transition. Since most of the world is rapidly droppi...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Perspectives on politics 2020-09, Vol.18 (3), p.867-880
Main Authors: Goldstone, Jack A., Diamond, Larry
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Age
Anxiety
Climate change
Democracy
Democratization
Demographic transition
Demography
Developing countries
Drought
Fertility
Governance
Immigration
LDCs
Migrants
Nationalism
Noncitizens
Political asylum
Population growth
Productivity
Prospects
Reflection
World War II
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:The world is in the midst of a demographic recession. This counters what should be a long-term trend toward greater democracy. Recent research has shown that progress toward stable democracy is strongly associated with progress in the demographic transition. Since most of the world is rapidly dropping in fertility as more countries complete this transition, democracy should be spreading. However, a resurgence of anxiety, nationalism, and support for strong-man governance is associated with sudden waves of immigration from unfamiliar sources. Because certain parts of the world—mainly Central America, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East—still have very young and rapidly growing populations who suffer from poor economic prospects, adverse climate change, and bad governance, those regions are sending waves of migrants seeking asylum to Europe and the United States, raising anxieties that undermine liberal democratic governance. Global democracy is thus being tugged in opposing directions by current demographic trends. Improving governance in poorer countries to cope with the negative impact of climate change and to create better economic prospects, as well as efforts to reduce fertility, are essential to diminish the surges of migrants and restore the impetus toward democracy that should prevail in mature societies.
ISSN:1537-5927
1541-0986
DOI:10.1017/S1537592719005000