Prediction of possible distribution of tularemia in theCzechRepublic

• Published in: Veterinární medicína 2004-01, Vol.49 (2), p.61
• Main Authors: Pikula, J, Beklova, M, Holesovska, Z, Treml, F
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air temperature; Annual precipitation; Geographical distribution; Lepus europaeus; Prediction models; Predictions; Sea level; Spatial data; Territory; Tularemia
• ISSN: 0375-8427; 1805-9392
• DOI: 10.17221/5677-VETMED

A prediction map of tularemia was constructed on the basis of factors identified as contributing to the existence of current natural foci of tularemia in the CzechRepublic. The geographic distribution of a total of 6 different factors was evaluated with respect to their suitability for harbouring natural foci of tularemia. These factors included habitats of alluvial forests, geographic areas of up to 200 m above the sea level, 8.1–10.0°C of mean annual air temperature, 450–700 mm of mean annual precipitation, 1 801–2 000 and 2 001–2 200 h of mean annual sunshine duration and the highest population densities of the European brown hare (Lepus europaeus). The whole territory of the Czech Republic was divided into 1 814 unit areas of 5.1 × 8.5 km characterised by the presence or absence of the specific conditions stated above. Analytical tools of the KORMAP GIS program and its capability of combining spatial data to construct a new map were used. There are two main territories of conditions favourable for tularemia in the Czech Republic, i.e., Southern Moravia and Central Bohemia. Areas of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 factors favourable for tularemia cover 18 120.30, 27 960.75, 15 259.20, 7 933.05, 5 245.35, 3 337.95 and 780.30 km2, respectively, of the total area of 78 636.9 km2 of theCzechRepublic. The prediction modelling of possible occurrence of a zoonosis seems to be an economical way of selecting areas of study and research.