Land use and cover modeling as a tool for analyzing nature conservation policies – A case study of Juréia-Itatins

• Published in: Land use policy 2021-01, Vol.100, p.104895, Article 104895
• Main Authors: Assaf, Camila, Adams, Cristina, Ferreira, Fernando Fagundes, França, Helena
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Case studies; Cellular automata; Conservation; Cultivation; Dynamic model; Environmental policy; Historic buildings & sites; Land use; Land use and cover change; Nature conservation; Protected areas; Shifting cultivation; Sustainability
• ISSN: 0264-8377; 1873-5754
• DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104895

•Counterfactual scenario models help in the understanding of landscape dynamics.•There is no correlation between traditional shifting cultivation and deforestation.•The ban on shifting cultivation, justified by nature conservation, was overestimated. Land Use and Cover Changes (LUCCs) have been a cause of great concern for socio-environmental sustainability. Applied study in this field should take into account the history of the interaction between man and nature, and the effect on the landscape that this dynamic projects. This paper’s objective is to assess LUCCs with regard to the effect of a nature conservation policy and correlate such changes with the practice of shifting cultivation. For that, historical aerial photos of the study site (a protected area located in São Paulo, Brazil) were analyzed and Markov and Cellular Automata models were built and compared to simulate different scenarios, including a counterfactual one. The results showed that the policy was important to stop pressures against nature conservation and that there is a lack of correlation between shifting cultivation and reducing forest cover, highlighting the fact that the ban on shifting cultivation, justified by nature conservation, can be overestimated.