Efficiency of Time Series Homogenization: Method Comparison with 12 Monthly Temperature Test Datasets

• Published in: Journal of climate 2021-04, Vol.34 (8), p.2877-2891
• Main Authors: Domonkos, Peter, Guijarro, José A., Venema, Victor, Brunet, Manola, Sigró, Javier
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Algorithms; Climate trends; Climatic analysis; Datasets; Error reduction; Homogenization; Instrumentation; Mathematical analysis; Methods; Signal to noise ratio; Statistics; Temperature; Time series; Trends
• ISSN: 0894-8755; 1520-0442
• DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0611.1

The aim of time series homogenization is to remove nonclimatic effects, such as changes in station location, instrumentation, observation practices, and so on, from observed data. Statistical homogenization usually reduces the nonclimatic effects but does not remove them completely. In the Spanish “MULTITEST” project, the efficiencies of automatic homogenization methods were tested on large benchmark datasets of a wide range of statistical properties. In this study, test results for nine versions, based on five homogenization methods—the adapted Caussinus-Mestre algorithm for the homogenization of networks of climatic time series (ACMANT), “Climatol,” multiple analysis of series for homogenization (MASH), the pairwise homogenization algorithm (PHA), and “RHtests”—are presented and evaluated. The tests were executed with 12 synthetic/surrogate monthly temperature test datasets containing 100–500 networks with 5–40 time series in each. Residual centered root-mean-square errors and residual trend biases were calculated both for individual station series and for network mean series. The results show that a larger fraction of the nonclimatic biases can be removed from station series than from network-mean series. The largest error reduction is found for the long-term linear trends of individual time series in datasets with a high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), where the mean residual error is only 14%–36% of the raw data error. When the SNR is low, most of the results still indicate error reductions, although with smaller ratios than for large SNR. In general, ACMANT gave the most accurate homogenization results. In the accuracy of individual time series ACMANT is closely followed by Climatol, and for the accurate calculation of mean climatic trends over large geographical regions both PHA and ACMANT are recommended.